智能产业发展潜在风险研究——基于省级面板数据实证分析

On the Potential Risks of Intelligent Industry Development——An Empirical Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data

智能制造是促进产业结构升级、提质增效、增强国力的重要领域,但智能产业的不断进步也会导致传统产业市场份额的减少,造成产业失衡。智能产业作为一种新兴产业,还未有完善的制度对其加以引导和管控,可能存在经济、政策、结构三方面的潜在风险。因此,本文对我国2010-2018年30个省市自治区的面板数据进行分析,构建相关计量模型,探讨潜在风险对智能产业发展的影响。结果表明,政策风险对智能产业的发展影响最为显著。为有效减缓因技术革命引发的经济危机,政府需适当调整产业结构、培育新的经济增长点来带动经济发展;同时要抑制虚拟投资产生的泡沫经济,并采取适度宽松的货币政策来避免民粹主义产生的政策风险。

Intelligent industry plays an important role in promoting the upgrading of industrial structures,improving quality and efficiency and strengthening national strength.However,its continuous progress will also lead to the reduced market share of the traditional industries,thus resulting in industrial imbalance.As an emerging sector,intelligent industry has not established a system to guide and control its development and there may be potential risks in terms of economy,policy and structue.In this paper,the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2010 to 2018 are analyzed and an econometric model is built to discuss the impact of these potential risks.The results show that the policy risk has the most significant impact.To effectively alleviate economic crises caused by technological revolution,the government needs to readjust the industrial structure and foster new growth areas in the economy to drive economic development.At the same time,bubble economy generated by virtual investments should be restrained and moderately loose monetary policies should be adopted to avoid risks caused by populism.