基于RESSIC框架的中国海洋经济发展质量测度与影响因素分析

Quality Measurement and Influencing Factor Analysis of China′s Marine Economic Development Based on RESSIC Framework

基于RESSIC框架构建海洋经济发展质量评价体系,采用坎蒂雷赋权法和TOPSIS模型测度中国海洋经济发展质量,并分析其时空演进特征,在此基础上利用Tobit回归模型识别影响因素。研究发现:1)2006-2017年中国海洋经济发展质量整体呈稳步上升态势,韧性呈波动上升趋势,海洋经济的安全性和包容性亟待提升;2)中国海洋经济发展质量呈现由低水平“俱乐部收敛”向高水平均衡发展演变轨迹,低水平省(市、区)对高水平省(市、区)形成“追赶效应”,省际相对差异趋于缩小;3)海洋经济发展质量空间分布呈现由低水平集聚向高水平集聚演进趋势,在空间上形成以环渤海地区、长三角地区和珠三角地区为核心的三极格局;4)海陆经济发展水平、海洋产业结构、海洋科技创新水平对海洋经济发展质量具有显著的正向作用,海洋环境规制和海洋人力资本水平对海洋经济发展质量提升具有一定的抑制作用。提高海陆经济发展水平、科学调整海洋产业结构、全面提升海洋科技创新水平对于实现海洋经济高质量发展具有重要意义。

Based on the RESSIC framework,a marine economic development quality evaluation system was constructed.The Kantiere weighting method and TOPSIS model were used to measure the marine economic development quality of China.The evolution characteristics of its spatial and temporal pattern were explored.On this basis,the Tobit regression model was used to identify the influencing factors.It is found as follows.1)From 2006 to 2017,the overall quality of China′s marine economic development showed a steady increase,and the resilience showed a fluctuating upward trend.The safety and inclusiveness of the marine economy urgently need to be improved.2)The quality of China′s marine economic development showed an evolution trajectory from low level"club convergence"to high level balanced development.Low level provinces(municipalities or autonomous regions)formed a"catch-up effect"on high level provinces(municipalities or autonomous regions),and the relative differences among provinces tended to be narrow.3)The quality of marine economic development showed an spatial evolution trend from low-level agglomeration to high-level agglomeration,and formed a three-pole pattern with Bohai Rim,Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta as the core.4)The level of marine and land economic development,the structure of marine industries,and the level of marine technological innovation have a significant positive effect on the quality of marine economic development,and the level of marine environmental regulations and marine human capital have a certain inhibitory effect on the quality of marine economic development.