采用事件树方法对列车意外闯入作业地点的风险分析

Risk Analysis of Train Breaking into Operation Site by Accident based on Event Tree Method

应用事件树方法对列车意外闯入作业地点进行风险分析。从安全性、经济损失、中断行车时间3方面,分级介绍列车意外闯入作业地点的风险后果,构建事件树模型,计算风险后果。重点围绕19种可能的事件树组合事故序列、4种不同程度事故后果发生的可能性、5个层级既有作业防护措施的有效性作具体风险分析,为优化现场作业防护管理、防范发生人身事故提供理论技术支撑。

Event tree method is used to model the risk and analyze the consequence of train breaking into operation site by accident.The risk consequence of train breaking into operation site is defined from three aspects of safety,eco⁃nomic loss and interruption time.The corresponding event tree model is set up,the risk consequence calculation is carried out.The specific risk analysis is focused on 19 possible event tree combination accident sequences,the occur⁃rence possibility of four different degrees of accident consequences,and the effectiveness of existing operation protec⁃tion measures at five levels,which can provide theoretical and technical guidance for optimizing on-site operation pro⁃tection management and preventing personal accidents.