城乡火灾风险与社会性指标的关联性研究

The study of correlation analysis between fire risk and social factors

为探究社会性因素对城乡火灾风险的影响权重,基于火灾历史数据计算GDP、常住人口和受教育程度等指标与城乡火灾风险的关联性。计算分析发现,GDP总量与火灾数量呈现正相关关系,在省份维度GDP总量与火灾数量呈现强相关,在城市维度GDP总量与火灾数量呈现中等相关;各省常住人口与本省火灾数量呈现强相关关系,但经济欠发达省份的关联性较弱;居民受教育程度较低时,教育水平与火灾发生数量呈负相关,高教育阶段时,教育水平与火灾发生数量呈正相关。

In order to study the influence of social factors on fire risk,grey correlation analysis method was adopted to calculate the correlation between social indexes,such as GDP,population and education level,and fire risk based on the historical fire data.The study shows GDP was positively correlated with the number of fires.The number of fires in provinces was strongly correlated with GDP,nevertheless the number of fires in cities was moderately correlated with GDP.There was a strong correlation between the resident population and the number of fires in each province,but the correlation was weak in less developed provinces.The education level was negatively correlated with the number of fires when the education level of residents was low.However,the education level was positively correlated with the number of fires when the education level was high.