中国生猪养殖规模结构变动是产业政策造成的吗?——基于马尔可夫链的实证分析

Was the Change of Farm Scale Structure Caused by Hog Industrial Policy in China?An Empirical Analysis Based on Markov Chain

本文利用2001-2018年省级面板数据,采用马尔可夫链方法,分析生猪产业政策对养殖规模转移概率的影响,进而揭示生猪产业政策对生猪养殖规模结构变动的影响机理。研究结果表明,生猪产业政策显著促进了养殖场规模转移,从而加速了生猪养殖规模结构变化过程,但不同规模养殖场对政策的敏感性存在差异。生猪养殖补贴强度提高显著降低了100头以下规模生猪养殖场维持原有规模的概率,但显著提高了散养户的退出概率和小规模养殖场向中规模养殖场扩张的概率。环境规制强度提高显著降低了规模养殖场的扩张概率,但显著提高了散养户维持原有规模的概率,并显著降低了其退出概率。环境规制强度对大规模养殖场规模转移概率的影响不显著。此外,小规模养殖场具有规模扩张的动机,对生猪养殖补贴和环境规制强度都十分敏感。

Based on the provincial panel data from 2001 to 2018, this article uses Markov chain method to analyze the impact of hog industrial policy on the transition probability of hog-breeding scale structure, and then reveals the impact mechanism of the scale structure change. The results show that hog industrial policies have significantly promoted the scale transfer of farms, thus accelerating the process of structural change, but the sensitivity of different scale farms to the policies has been different. The increase of the intensity of hog-breeding subsidies has significantly reduced the probability of farms with less than 100 heads to maintain their original scale, but has increased the exit probability of free-range farms and significantly increased the expansion probability of small-scale farms to medium-scale farms. The increase of environmental regulation intensity has significantly reduced the expansion probability of farms with more than 50 heads, but has significantly increased the probability of free-range farms to maintain their original scale and significantly reduced their exit probability. The impact of environmental regulation intensity on the scale transfer probability of large-scale farms is not significant. In addition, small-scale farms have the motivation of scale expansion and are very sensitive to the intensity of hog-breeding subsidies and environmental regulation.