交通设施改善、农业劳动力转移与结构转型

Transportation Infrastructure Improvement,Transfer ofAgricultural Labor Force and Structural Transformation

本文探究了交通设施改善对农业劳动力转移的影响及其机制。基于县级层面高速铁路开通的准自然实验研究发现,高铁开通导致当地的农业劳动力向非农行业转移了3%。进一步的机制分析发现,该影响主要来自于降低流动成本与提升农业生产力带来的“推力”效应和促进当地非农产业发展带来的“拉力”效应。异质性分析表明,交通设施改善对农业劳动力非农转移的影响主要体现在人口流出大省和边缘地区。本文的结论揭示了交通设施改善在促进中国经济结构转型过程中的重要作用,并对探究刘易斯转折点到来背景下中国未来经济增长的动力以及乡村振兴战略背景下中国农业农村的持续发展具有重要的政策含义。

This article examines the impact of transportation infrastructure improvement on the transfer of agricultural labor force and its mechanism.Using a quasi-natural experimental study with the start of operations of high-speed railways at the county level,the study finds that the start of operations of high-speed railways leads to a 3%transfer of agricultural labor force to non-agricultural industries.Further mechanism analysis shows that the impact mainly comes from the“push”effect brought by reducing the flow cost and improving agricultural productivity,and the“pull”effect brought by promoting the development of local non-agricultural industries.A heterogeneity analysis shows that the above-mentioned effects are more obvious in the counties located in provinces with large outflow and in remote areas.This evidence reveals the important role that the improvement of transportation infrastructure plays in promoting China’s economic structural transformation,and it also has policy implications to explore the driving force of China’s future economic growth under the background of the arrival of the Lewis turning point and the sustainable developmentof China’s agricultureand ruralareas underthe background ofrural revitalization strategy.