工业智能化与产业梯度转移:对“雁阵理论”的再检验

Industrial Intelligence and Industrial Gradient Transfer:Re-Examination of the“Flying Geese Theory”

本文将工业智能化纳入新经济地理学经典分析框架,刻画与验证工业智能化、劳动力成本和人力资本影响中国区域间工业产业转移的机理和效应。研究发现:工业智能化一方面改变了区域间产业单向梯度转移模式,南部沿海地区已出现工业产业回流现象,劳动力成本不再是产业转移的决定性因素。另一方面改变了地区产业结构梯度升级模式,沿海地区的高技术含量和常规性任务密集行业开始呈规模扩张之势,部分中等技术制造业发展成熟后不再按照"雁阵模式"向内陆地区转移。此外,工业智能化和人力资本的有效匹配推动了东南沿海地区先进装备制造业的智能化升级。承接先进地区产业转入不再是后发地区实现产业高质量发展的唯一途径,高质量人力资本成为支撑国家或地区成功实现工业智能化转型和构筑现代产业体系的关键。

This paper incorporates industrial intelligence into the classical analytical framework of new economic geography to depict and verify the influence mechanism and effect of industrial intelligence,labor cost and human capital on the inter-regional industrial transfer in China.It finds that,on the one hand,industrial intelligence has challenged the inter-regional industrial one-way gradient transfer mode,industrial reflux has appeared in southern coastal region,labor cost is no longer the decisive factor of industrial transfer.On the other hand,industrial intelligence has changed the gradient upgrading mode of regional industrial structure,the high-tech,routine task-intensive industries in the coastal areas have begun to show the trend of scale expansion,and some meddle-tech manufacturing industries after the development of mature have no longer transferred to the inland areas according to“flying geese mode”.What's more,The effective matching of industrial intelligence and human capital will promote the intelligent upgrading process of advanced equipment manufacturing industries in southeast coastal areas.Undertaking industrial transfer from the advanced areas is no longer the only way for the high quality development of industries in the backward areas.The high quality human capital is the key to support a country or region to realize the transformation of industrial intelligence and establish the modern industrial system successfully.