中国人口红利的理论建构、机制重构与未来结构

The Theoretical Construction,Mechanisms Reconsideration and Future Structure of Demographic Dividend in China

国内研究领域普遍存在对人口红利的误用和误判问题,主要是由于现有的人口红利概念过于模糊,判断标准相对静态。文章根据人口机会、国情现实和主导作用,廓清了基于人口机会的人口红利概念,并将人口红利划分为由劳动力的经济增长效应主导的数量型,由人力资本的经济增长效应主导的质量型,以及由全要素生产率的经济增长效应体现的配置型3种类型,初步建构了具有中国特色的人口红利理论。基于理论建构,文章从人口机会和政策环境的转型过程重构了人口红利的动态机制,由此提出中国人口红利未消失和正处于转型期的判断,并认为其未来结构将以质量型人口红利为主导,数量型人口红利尚存但收获难度加大,配置型人口红利正在转型升级。

In the domestic literature of demographic dividend,there exists broadly misuse and misjudgment.This is because the existing concept of demographic dividend is too vague,and indicators concerned are relatively static.Based on demographic opportunities,national conditions and leading mechanisms,the paper examines the definition of demographic dividend on the basis of demographic opportunities.The demographic dividend is divided into three types:the quantitative type dominated by the economic growth effect of labor,the quality type dominated by the economic growth effect of human capital,and the configuration type reflected by the economic growth effect of total factor productivity.On the basis of this new framework of demographic dividend theory with Chinese characteristics,the paper reconstructs the dynamic mechanism of the demographic dividend from the transition process of population opportunities and policy environment,and puts forward the judgment that China’s demographic dividend has not disappeared and is still in a transitional period.It points out that its future structure will rely upon qualitative demographic dividend as the leading factor,the quantitative demographic dividend still exists but copturing it becomes more difficult,and the allocation-based demographic dividend is undergoing transformation and upgrading.