多维剥夺视角下中国农村老年贫困的识别与治理

The Identification and Governance of Elderly Poverty in Rural China in the Perspective of Multi-Dimensional Deprivation

文章在“剥夺识别—多维治理”分析框架下,基于2013~2018年中国健康与养老追踪调查数据(CH ARLS)应用潜变量马尔科夫模型(LMM)识别不同多维剥夺形式下的农村老年贫困及其转型动态,并采用动态随机Probit模型检验养老保障和多维度社会救助的综合配套机制对中国农村老年贫困的治理效果。结果发现,中国农村老年贫困存在状态依存性,且老年群体的个体异质性也会影响其多维剥夺状态及其转型。现阶段基础性养老保障在社会救助的协同机制作用下,共同构成预防农村老年贫困的“双重防线”,可以提高农村老年人高多维剥夺水平的退出率,降低农村老年人多维剥夺的状态依存性。文章认为,输血型和造血型反贫困政策相结合有利于提高公共治理的弹性,针对老年人群的异质性实施“多维剥夺的多维治理”,能够有效阻断老年贫困,激发农村老年群体的内生脱贫能力。

Based on the framework of identification-governance in multi-dimensional deprivation and using the data of CHARLS from 2013-2018,this paper applies LMM to identify the rural elderly poverty and its transition dynamics under different multi-dimensional deprivation forms,and uses dynamic random Probit model to examine the coordination of pension and multi-dimensional social assistance on the governance effect of rural elderly poverty in China.The results show that the poverty of the elderly in rural China is state-dependent,and the individual heterogeneity of the elderly also affects its multi-dimensional deprivation status and its transformation.At this stage,the basic pension and social assistance together constitute a"double line of defense"to prevent rural elderly poverty,which can increase the exit rate of rural elderly people with high and multi-dimensional deprivation,and reduce state dependence of multi-dimensional deprivation of the elderly in rural areas.The paper points out that the combination of blood transfusion and hematopoietic anti-poverty policies is conducive to improving the flexibility of public governance.The implementation of"multi-dimensional deprivation of multi-dimensional governance"against the heterogeneity of the elderly can effectively block the poverty of the elderly,and stimulate the internalization of the rural elderly to escape poverty.