摘要
目的分析2015—2019年上海市浦东新区水痘病例的时空分布特征,为控制水痘暴发和流行提供参考依据。方法以街道为单位收集2015—2019年上海市浦东新区水痘发病数据,采用ArcGIS 10.0作为数据管理和呈现的平台,构建空间数据库,进行空间自相关分析,采用SaTScan 9.6进行时空聚集分析。结果 2015—2019年上海市浦东新区共报告水痘病例20 919例,水痘年发病率分别为67.75/10万、69.84/10万、96.65/10万、86.26/10万和60.27/10万,全局自相关Moran’s I指数分别为0.141、0.058、0.244、0.177和0.137,其中2015、2017、2018、2019年区域范围内自相关关系有统计学意义(P<0.05);局部自相关显示上海市浦东新区中部、北部呈现高-高聚集,西部呈现低-低聚集现象;时空扫描结果显示上海市浦东新区的中部、北部为一类聚集区,西北部为二类聚集区。结论 2015—2019年上海市浦东新区水痘病例整体上呈现时空聚集性,建议针对中部、北部等重点区域加大防控力度,建立免疫屏障。
Objective To analyze the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of chickenpox cases in Pudong New Area of Shanghai from 2015-2019,provide reference for controlling the outbreaks and epidemics of chickenpox. Methods The incidence data of chickenpox in Pudong New Area of Shanghai from 2015-2019 were collected by sub-districts. ArcGIS10.0 software was used for data management and presentation platform,to build spatial database and conduct the spatial autocorrelation analysis.SaTScan 9.6 was used for spatiotemporal aggregation analysis. Results Totally 20 919 cases of chickenpox in Pudong New Area of Shanghai from 2015-2019,the annual incidence of chickenpox was 67.75/lakh,69.84/lakh,96.65/lakh,86.26/lakh and 60.27/lakh,respectively. The global autocorrelation Moran’s I index was 0.141,0.058,0.244,0.177 and 0.137 respectively. The regional autocorrelation in 2015,2017,2018 and 2019 had the statistical significance(P<0.05). The local autocorrelation showed that the central and northern part of Pudong New Area presented a high-high aggregation,while the western part presented a low-low aggregation. The spatial-temporal scanning results showed that the central and northern part of Pudong New Area were primary clustering areas,and the northwest part was secondary clustering area. Conclusion The cases of chickenpox in Pudong New Area of Shanghai show the spatiotemporal aggregation from 2015-2019. It is suggested that the prevention and control efforts in the central and northern regions should be strengthened to establish immune barriers.
作者
杨来宝
王琦璋
汪业胜
王伟炳
肖绍坦
费怡
YANG Laibao;WANG Qi-zhang;WANG Ye-sheng;WANG Wei-bing;XIAO Shao-tan;FEI Yi(Operation Management Office,Shanghai Pudong New Area Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Shanghai,200136,China;Department of Immunization Prerention,Shanghai Pudong New Area Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Shanghai,200136,China;Pudong Institue of Preventive Medicine,Fudan University,Shanghai,200136,China;Ministry of Education Key Laboralory of Public Health Safety,Department of Epide miolog,School of Public Health.Fiudan University,Shanghai,200032,China)
出处
《职业与健康》
CAS
2021年第10期1349-1353,1359,共6页
Occupation and Health
基金
2017年上海市浦东新区疾控中心资助项目(PDCDC-2017-01)。
关键词
水痘
地理信息系统
空间自相关分析
时空聚集性
Chickenpox
Geographic information system
Spatial autocorrelation analysis
Spatiotemporal aggregation
