信息披露质量对上市公司盈余预测准确性影响研究——基于管理层讨论与分析(MD&A)视角的分析

Research on the Impact of Information Disclosure Quality on the Accuracy of Earnings Forecasts of Listed Companies——Analysis based on Management Discussion and Analysis(MD&A) Perspective

对上市公司的盈余预测是投资人在进行投资时重要的参考。盈余预测准确性受多方因素影响。本文利用2016-2018年沪深300指数成分股上市公司样本数据,研究信息披露质量对分析师盈余预测准确性的影响,实证分析发现:管理层讨论与分析(MD&A)(1)的披露质量与分析师盈余预测准确性正相关;与历史性信息相比,管理层讨论与分析中前瞻性信息的披露质量对分析师盈余预测准确性的影响程度更大。本文就完善管理层讨论与分析信息披露、提高分析师盈余预测准确性以及保护投资者利益提出相关建议。

Earnings forecasts for listed companies are an important reference for investors when making investments. The accuracy of earnings forecast is affected by multiple factors. This paper examines the impact of information disclosure quality on the accuracy of analysts’ earnings forecasts using data from a sample of listed companies that are constituents of the CSI 300 Index from 2016-2018.The empirical analysis finds that: the quality of disclosure of management discussion and analysis(MD&A) is positively related to the accuracy of analysts’ earnings forecasts;the quality of disclosure of forward-looking information in MD&A has a greater impact on the accuracy of analysts’ earnings forecasts compared with historical information. This article makes recommendations to improve the disclosure of MD&A information, enhance the accuracy of analysts’ earnings forecasts and protect the interests of investors.