人口集聚与金融脆弱性--基于中国上市银行的实证研究

Population Aggregation and Financial Fragility:An Empirical Study Based on Listed Banks in China

人口集聚对金融稳定具有潜在的外部冲击,可能导致金融体系内在的脆弱性暴露。选取2000-2019年中国上市银行微观数据以及城市人口密度数据,通过实证检验人口集聚对金融脆弱性的影响方向以及作用机制,研究发现:人口集聚显著引起了银行违约风险和系统性风险水平升高,即人口集聚加剧了金融脆弱性;而在银行业恐慌时期和低程度信息不对称的银行分组中,人口集聚对于银行风险水平的影响更强。这表明人口集聚既能通过加剧金融恐慌导致银行风险升高,亦能通过缓解信息不对称降低银行风险水平。进一步分析发现,2014年户籍制度改革政策推动的人口集聚显著引起了区域性银行杠杆率和存贷比上升,进而加剧了银行风险。这表明人口集聚对金融稳定的负面影响稳健存在。因此,需要注重区域协调发展,避免过度的人口集聚;需要提振公众信心,对人口密集地区的金融风险进行防控;需要重点加强银行业监管,以保障整个金融体系的安全与稳定。

Population aggregation can exert a certain degree of potential external shock to the stability of finance,which may lead to exposure of the fragility in the financial system.By selecting the micro-data of China’s listed banks and the city population density data from 2000 to 2019,this paper conducts an empirical test on the affecting direction of population aggregation on financial fragility and its action mechanism.The findings show that population aggregation can significantly lead to banks’default risks and the rising of systemic risks,i.e.,population aggregation has aggravated the financial fragility.While during the banking panic period and in the bank group with lower information asymmetry,the effect of population aggregation on banking risks is even stronger.This reveals that population aggregation can not only result in the increase of bank risks by intensifying financial panic,but also reducing bank risks by alleviating information asymmetry.Further analysis reveals that the population aggregation driven by the reform of the household registration system in 2014 has significantly raised the leverage ratio and loan-to-deposit ratio of regional commercial banks,which further contributed to the increasing of bank risks.This proves that the negative impact of population aggregation on financial stability exists solidly.Therefore,it is necessary to pay attention to the regional coordinated development and avoid excessive population aggregation;to boost public confidence and to prevent and control financial risks in the areas with dense population;and to focus on strengthening the supervision of the banking industry and to safeguard the safety and stability of the whole financial system.