2006—2019年中山市丙型病毒性肝炎报告发病率的年龄-时期-队列分析

An age-period-cohort study for reported incidence of hepatitis C in Zhongshan City,from 2006 to 2019

目的掌握广东省中山市丙型病毒性肝炎(简称丙肝)报告发病率在年龄、时期和出生队列三个纬度的变化趋势。方法采用广义相加模型分析年龄、时期及出生队列对2006―2019年中山市丙肝报告病例的影响。结果2006―2019年中山市丙肝年均报告发病率为28.49/10万。0~<10岁组的年龄效应值呈下降趋势,10岁以后随年龄增长而升高。男性高危出生队列在1970―1990年,女性在1960―1990年。2000年后男性出生队列效应RR值逐渐升高,女性逐年下降。结论中山市丙肝报告发病率较高,需做好高危出生队列人群的健康教育,尤其是加强2000年以后出生男性的行为干预,降低疾病传播风险。

Objective To explore the age-period-cohort trend of reported incidence rate of hepatitis C in Zhongshan City,Guangdong Province.Methods The generalized additive model was used to analyze the effect of age,period and cohort on the reported cases of hepatitis C in Zhongshan City from 2006 to 2019.Results The annual incidence rate in Zhongshan was 28.49 per 100000,from 2006 to 2019.The downward age effect was observed in 0-10 years old group,but increased trend was found after 10 years old.The highest RR was found in male born between 1970 and 1990,and in female born between 1960 to 1990.However,the birth cohort effect of RR increased for male born after the year 2000,but decreased for female year by year.Conclusions The incidence rate of hepatitis C is high in Zhongshan City.It’s necessary to enhance the health education for higher risk birth cohort,especially for male born after the year 2000,and to reduce the disease transmission risk.