河南省2015—2019年1岁以下婴儿麻疹流行特征与时空聚集性分析

Epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal clusters on measles of infants under 1 year old in Henan Province from 2015 to 2019

目的分析河南省2015―2019年1岁以下婴儿麻疹的时空分布特征,识别高危聚集区,为麻疹防控提供理论依据。方法基于中国传染病监测信息报告管理系统和麻疹监测信息报告管理系统,通过描述性流行病学方法分析河南省2015―2019年1岁以下婴儿麻疹三间分布特征。采用SaTScan 9.4软件和ArcGIS 10.7软件对2015―2019年1岁以下婴儿麻疹发病情况进行分析,探索其时空分布规律和高危聚集区。结果2015―2019年1岁以下婴儿麻疹累计报告2757例,年平均报告发病率为42.82/10万;病例主要集中在6~8月龄婴儿,占病例总数的49.40%;每年1―5月为发病高峰。三维趋势分析显示,河南省2015―2019年1岁以下婴儿麻疹发病由南向北逐渐降低,由东向西先升高后降低,呈轻微的倒U型分布;时空扫描统计结果显示,共识别到3个时空聚集区,主要聚集区位于南部平顶山市和南阳市的县(区),包含28个县(区)聚集,时间为2015年。结论2015―2019年河南省1岁以下婴儿麻疹发病率整体呈逐年下降趋势,且高发年份存在明显季节性规律,6~8月龄为其主要发病人群,2015―2019年河南省1岁以下婴儿麻疹发病存在时空聚集性,主要聚集区位于河南中南部,应重点关注。

Objective To analyze the spatial and temporal characteristics on measles of infants under 1 year old in Henan Province during 2015-2019,to provide evidence for the prevention and control of measles.Methods Data were collected from the Infection Disease Reporting Information System in China and the National Measles Surveillance System.The epidemiological characteristics on measles of infants under 1 year old in Henan Province during 2015-2019 were described.Spatiotemporal distribution and clustering were analyzed by using the ArcGIS 10.7 software and SaTScan 9.4 software.Results A total of 2757 measles infants under 1 year old were found in Henan Province from 2015-2019 with an average annual incidence of 42.82/100000.Most cases aged between 6-8 months old,accounting for 49.40%of the total number of cases.The epidemic peak was between January and May.The trend surface analysis found that the incidence of measles decreased gradually from the southern to northern parts,which showed an inverted U type curve.The spatiotemporal scan found three spatiotemporal aggregation areas,and the strongest areas were located in Pingdingshan and Nanyang Districts,which including 28 counties in 2015.Conclusion The incidence rate of measles infants under 1 year old was decreasing year by year and showing obviously seasonal rule in Henan Province,2015-2019.Infants aged 6-8 months old are the main group of patients.The main clustering areas were located in the south central part of Henan Province,suggesting that the prevention and control measures should be further strengthened in these areas.