公共财政支出对经济增长的影响——基于我国2009-2018年省级面板数据的研究

The Impact of Governmental Public Expenditure on Economic Growth———the Study Based on Chinese Interprovincial Panel Data from 2009-18

历经1994年分税制改革和1998年公共财政框架构建变革后,我国税收收入和公共支出总额近年都呈稳步提升态势,GDP占比虽有提升,但相较于发达国家仍处于较低水平。本文采用2009-2018年我国省级面板数据,实证分析公共财政支出总规模及其中一般公共服务支出、科技研发支出、医疗卫生支出、教育知识支出、交通运输支出和社会保障与就业支出对经济增长的影响。研究发现,公共支出总水平的提升对经济增长发挥显著促进作用,一般公共服务支出、科教文卫、交通基建与社保等财政支出对经济增长也呈现积极影响,且都存在一定的时间滞后效应。因此在我国财政政策提质增效的总态势下,应该适当提升公共支出总规模,充分发挥其对社会资本的引领作用,依据不同要素的贡献率优化公共支出结构,合理配置中央及地方财政,推动我国经济顺利实现高质量协调发展和共享发展。

After the reform of tax-sharing system in 1994 and the reform of public finance framework construction in 1998,the tax revenue and total public expenditure of China have shown a trend of steady improvement.As an important means of national macro-economic control,the proportion of public expenditure in GDP has also been increasing.However,it is still at a low level compared with developed countries.Based on the panel data of Chinese provincial level from 2009 to 2018,the paper studies the total scale of public financial expenditure and its impact on economic growth.Which is including general public service expenditure,scientific and technological research expenditure,medical and health expenditure,education and knowledge expenditure,transportation expenditure and social security expenditure.It is found that the increase of the total level of public expenditure plays a significant role in promoting economic growth,and other components also have a positive impact on it.Besides,they all have a certain time lag effect.Under the guidance of proactive fiscal policy,increasing the total scale of public expenditure,optimizing the structure of public expenditure,rationally allocating central and local finance,the economy of China will achieve high-quality development.