外商投资企业利润汇出逆周期风险调节及管理研究

Study on the Regulation and Management of Countercyclical Risks of profit Repatriation of foreign-invested enterprises

改革开放以来,我国外商投资规模不断扩大,外方境内投资利润快速增长,外商投资企业的发展也经历了从资本投入到转型升级和不断成熟的过程,在我国对外开放进程中发挥了独特而重要的作用。外国投资者利润作为国际收支平衡表收益账户的重要组成部分,其顺周期性必然对国际收支产生冲击影响。本文在分析外商投资企业利润汇出顺周期性特点及其风险的基础上,实证分析了外商投资企业利润汇出的顺周期性及其影响,结果表明外商投资企业利润汇出对广义货币供给量、上证综合指数及汇率因素高度相关,顺周期性明显。最后本文提出在"宏观审慎+微观监管"两位一体框架下构建利润汇出逆周期风险调节的管理思路,并从完善统计监测机制、风险识别预警机制、风险调节管理机制三方面提出了逆周期风险调节管理框架及相关建议。

Since the reform and opening up,the scale of foreign investment in China has been continuously expanding,and the profit of foreign investment in China has been growing rapidly.The development of foreign-invested enterprises has also gone through the process from capital investment to upgrading and constant maturity.It has played a unique and important role in the process of China's opening to the outside world.The pro-cyclical of foreign investors’profit which is important part of the income account in the balance of international payments will inevitably have an impact on the balance of international payments.On the basis of analyzing the characteristics of profit procyclicality of foreign invested enterprises,this paper empirically analyzes its procyclicality add its influence.The results show that the profit repatriation of foreign invested enterprise is highly correlated with the factors of broad money supply,Shanghai composite index and exchange rate.It is obviously procyclicality.Finally,this paper puts forward the management idea of constructing the counter-cyclical risk regulation of profit remittance under the two-part framework of"macro-prudential+micro-supervision",and puts forward the management framework and related suggestions of counter-cyclical risk regulation from the aspects of improving the statistical monitoring mechanism,risk identification and early warning mechanism,and risk regulation and management mechanism.