中国居民消费碳排放峰值预测与分析

Prediction of the Peak Carbon Emission of Chinese Residents'Consumption and Analysis

2021年全国两会政府工作报告提出,扎实做好碳达峰、碳中和各项工作,制定2030年前碳排放达峰行动方案。消费碳排放将成为未来中国碳排放的主要增长点,为实现2030年碳排放达峰的目标,应引导和激励中国居民消费朝着更加低碳的方向发展。文章在进行居民消费碳排放测算的基础上,综合分析人口因素、经济因素和技术因素对居民消费碳排放的影响,建立IPAT-IDA预测模型,利用情景分析法,分析基准情景、强化能源效率情景、低碳消费情景下中国居民消费碳排放的未来趋势,预测2020—2050年中国居民消费碳排放的规模,讨论中国2030年碳排放达峰目标实现的可行性,并论证环境库兹涅茨理论在中国居民消费碳排放领域的适用性。

The government work report of the National People's Congress in 2021 proposes to do a solid job of peak carbon and carbon neutral work,and to formulate an action plan to reach peak carbon emissions by 2030.Consumption carbon emissions will become the main growth point of China's carbon emissions in the future.In order to achieve the goal of reaching the carbon peak by 2030,China's residential consumption should be guided and stimulated to develop in a more low-car-bon direction.Based on the estimation of residential consumption carbon emissions,the article ana-lyses the impact of demographic,economic and technological factors on residential consumption car-bon emissions,establishes the IPAT-IDA projection model,and uses scenario analysis to analyse the future trend of China's residential consumption carbon emissions under the baseline scenario,the en-hanced energy efficiency scenario and the low-carbon consumption scenario,and predicts the future trend of China's residential consumption carbon emissions between 2020 and the projection of the scale of China's residential consumption carbon emissions from 2020 to 2050,discusses the feasibility of achieving China's peak carbon emissions target by 2030,and demonstrates the applicability of the environmental Kuznets theory in the field of residential consumption carbon emissions in China.