基于动态三相不平衡度的线损电量预测模型构建

Construction of Line Loss Power Forecasting Model Based on Dynamic Three-phase Imbalance Degree

针对传统的线损电量预测模型预测精准度较低,提出并设计了一种基于动态三相不平衡度的线损电量预测模型。通过三相不平衡度对线损的影响,分析三相不平衡和线损的关系;利用线损二项式与线损率公式,计算电量的增长修正系数;根据计算结果构建线损电量预测模型。仿真实验表明,基于动态三相不平衡度的线损电量预测模型使用三相不平衡度对装置进行采集时,能够清楚的表达出负荷运转情况,并与传统模型相比,所设计模型的预测精准度较高,且过程简单、鲁棒性良好。

Aiming at the low accuracy of the traditional prediction model of line loss,a prediction model of line loss based on dynamic three-phase imbalance is proposed and designed.Through the influence of three-phase imbalance on line loss,the relationship between three-phase imbalance and line loss is analyzed;the binomial formula of line loss and line loss rate formula are used to calculate the growth correction coefficient of electric power;the prediction model of line loss electric power is built according to the calculation results.The simulation results show that when the three-phase imbalance degree is used to collect the device,the line loss electricity prediction model based on the dynamic three-phase imbalance degree can clearly express the load operation situation.Compared with the traditional model,the prediction accuracy of the designed model is higher,and the process is simple and robust.