工业智能化影响劳动力就业结构的门槛分析

Threshold Analysis of the Impact of Industrial Intelligence on the Employment Structure of Labor

工业智能化在推动工业高效、高质量发展的同时也对劳动力就业结构产生了深刻影响。运用面板回归和门槛回归的方法检验工业智能化对劳动力就业结构影响的门槛效应,结果显示:工业智能化对高技能劳动力就业具有创造吸纳效应,且有持续增强之势,而对中低技能劳动力就业呈现冲击替代效应,且有逐渐削弱之势。进一步归因分析表明,工业智能化对劳动力就业结构影响的门槛效应是产业结构升级和人口老龄化等因素共同作用的结果。基于我国东部、中部、西部三大区域在产业结构、人口老龄化等方面的差异性,分析工业智能化对劳动力就业结构影响的区域异质性,结果表明东部地区和西部地区工业智能化对劳动力就业结构影响的方向与全国一致,而中部地区工业智能化对劳动力就业结构影响的方向则相反。就工业智能化对劳动力就业结构的边际影响而言,东部地区明显高于西部。就影响的具体形式而言,东部地区工业智能化对中低技能劳动力就业的影响呈现双重门槛特征,对高技能劳动力就业的影响呈现单门槛特征;中部地区和西部地区工业智能化对中低技能劳动力和高技能劳动力就业的影响都存在双重门槛效应。

Industrial intelligence not only promotes high-efficiency and high-quality industrial development,but also has a profound impact on the employment structure of the labor force.The method of panel regression and threshold regression was used to test the threshold effect of industrial intelligence on the employment structure of the labor force.The results found that industrial intelligence has a creative and absorbing effect on high-skilled labor,and it has a tendency to continue to increase,while it has an impact on the employment of low-and medium-skilled labor.It presents a shock substitution effect,and it is gradually weakening.Further attribution analysis shows that the threshold effect of industrial intelligence on the labor employment structure is the result of the combined effect of factors such as industrial structure upgrading and population aging.Based on the differences in the industrial structure and population aging in the three major regions of my country's east,middle and west regions,the analysis of the regional heterogeneity of the impact of industrial intelligence on the labor employment structure shows that the impact of industrial intelligence on the labor employment structure in the eastern and western regions The direction is consistent with that of the whole country,while the direction of the influence of industrial intelligence in the central region on the labor employment structure is opposite.In terms of the marginal impact of industrial intelligence on the employment structure of the labor force,the eastern region is significantly higher than the western region.In terms of the specific form of impact,the impact of industrial intelligence in the eastern region on low-and medium-skilled labor has a dual-threshold feature,and the impact on high-skilled labor has a single-threshold feature;Industrial intelligence in the central and western regions has a dual-threshold feature for low-and medium-skilled labor.The impact of high-skilled labor and high-skilled labor has a dual-threshold effect.