基于信息熵隶属度的油田集输管道风险评价方法

Risk assessment method of oilfield gathering pipelines based on membership of information entropy

为有效保障油田集输管道安全运行,降低失效概率,避免重大安全事故,提出了一种基于信息熵隶属度的安全风险评价方法。该方法通过分析集输管道失效数据,确定集输管道失效特殊性,利用信息熵隶属度方法,建立了集输管道风险评价因子权重计算模型,基于失效特殊性与权重计算模型,形成相对完善的集输管道风险评价指标体系;利用肯特法,建立了集输管道风险计算模型,实现集输管道风险量化分析。以新疆油田集输管道为研究对象,利用基于信息熵隶属度的集输管道风险评价方法开展了安全评估,结果表明:该方法能够较准确地评价集输管道风险,评价结果符合新疆油田集输管道的实际情况,对制订集输管道风险分析标准具有借鉴作用。(图4,表3,参23)

In order to effectively guarantee the safe operation of oilfield gathering pipelines,reduce the failure probability and avoid the major safety accidents,a safety risk assessment method was proposed on the base of the membership of information entropy.With this method,the particularity of the failure of gathering pipelines was defined by analyzing the failure data,and a calculation model for the risk assessment factor weights of gathering pipelines was established with the information entropy membership method.Moreover,based on the failure particularity and the weight calculation model,a relatively perfect risk assessment index system of gathering pipelines was developed.Additionally,a risk calculation model for gathering pipelines was established with Kent method,realizing the quantitative risk analysis of gathering pipelines.With the gathering pipelines in Xinjiang Oilfield as the object of study,a safety risk analysis was performed with the gathering pipeline safety risk assessment method based on the membership of information entropy.The analysis results show that the proposed method can more accurately assess the risk of gathering pipelines,and the assessment results are consistent with the actual conditions of gathering pipelines in Xinjiang Oilfield.Meanwhile,it can be a reference for the formation of risk assessment standards of gathering pipelines.(4 Figures,3 Tables,23 References)