基于云模型的跨越管道综合风险评估

Comprehensive risk assessment of crossover pipelines based on cloud model

针对跨越管道风险评估中影响因素权重不确定与评估区间不细化的特点,对肯特法进行改进,结合云模型理论,确定风险评估等级,提出一种基于云模型的跨越管道综合风险评估方法,以期提高管道风险识别能力,最大限度地防止事故发生。以中国某跨越管道为例开展跨越管道综合风险评估,结果表明:在原模型基础上增加自然灾害因素和结构安装因素,将云模型与肯特模型相结合重新确定权重值,运用云模型的云滴敛散度可以提高权重系数的准确性,同时将管道进行分段评价,细化评价区间,结果与原方法相比更为准确。研究结果可为跨越管道设计、施工及维护提供参考。(图6,表2,参20)

In view of the characteristics of uncertainty in the weight of influencing factors and the non-refinement of evaluation intervals in the risk assessment of crossover pipelines,the Kent method was improved with the risk assessment level determined with reference to the cloud model theory.A cloud model based comprehensive risk assessment method of crossover pipelines was proposed for the purpose of enhancing the pipeline risk identification capability and minimizing risk of accidents.Moreover,the comprehensive risk assessment was conducted for the crossover pipelines through case analysis,and the results indicate that the accuracy of weight coefficient can be improved with the cloud droplet convergence and divergence of the cloud model by integrating the factors of natural disaster and structural installation into the original model and re-determining the weight value with the cloud model in combination with the Kent model.In addition,by evaluating the pipelines by section and refining the evaluation intervals,the assessment results are much more accurate than those of the original method,which can provide reference to the design,construction and maintenance of crossover pipelines.(6 Figures,2 Tables,20 References)