基于MaxEnt模型预测青杨脊虎天牛在中国的适生区

Prediction of potential distribution of Xylotrechus rusticus in China based on MaxEnt model

青杨脊虎天牛(Xylotrechus rusticus Linnaeus)是我国进境植物检疫性有害生物和林业检疫性有害生物。青杨脊虎天牛极易随木质包装、木制品等调运进行传播,具有较大的入侵风险。本文通过MaxEnt模型对青杨脊虎天牛在我国的适生区进行预测分析,结果为:青杨脊虎天牛在我国的适生区面积占比达到62.94%,其中高度适生区占比为20.63%,主要位于我国东北、华北、华中和华东地区,基于刀切法对各气候因子的贡献率和重要性分析得出,年平均温度和最冷季度平均温度两个气候变量对青杨脊虎天牛的分布影响较大,MaxEnt建模预测的训练数据和测试数据的AUC值分别为0.947和0.894,表明预测结果较可靠。鉴于目前青杨脊虎天牛还未在我国大面积为害,且现有分布情况明显小于预测适生范围,正是"外防输入、内防扩散"的最佳时机。希望有关部门能够提高风险防范意识,以降低青杨脊虎天牛的传入风险和治理代价,避免其带来的严重影响和损失。

Xylotrechus rusticus Linnaeus is a entry plant quarantine pest and forestry quarantine pest in China.X.rusticus is very easy to spread with the transportation of wooden package and products,posing a seriously potential threat.This paper analyzes the suitable area of X.rusticus in China with MaxEnt,and the results are as follows:the suitable area of X.rusticus in China accounts for 62.94%,of which the highly suitable area accounts for 20.63%,mainly located in Northeast,North,Central,East China.Based on the analysis of the contribution rate and importance of each climate factor by jackknife method,it is concluded that the two climate variables,the annual average temperature and the average temperature in the coldest season,have the greater impacts on the distribution of X.rusticus.The AUC of training data and test data predicted by MaxEnt are 0.947 and 0.894,it indicates that prediction results are reliable.In view of the fact that damage caused by X.rusticus has not yet happened in large area in China,and the existing distribution is obviously less than the predicted suitable range,it is the best time to"prevent import from outside and spread from inside".It is hoped that the relevant departments can improve the awareness of risk prevention,so as to reduce the invasion risk and control costs of X.rusticus,and avoid the serious impact and loss caused by X.rusticus.