新时代下税制结构安排与经济高质量发展——来自中国分税制改革后的省际证据考察

Tax Structure Arrangement and High Quality Economic Development in the New Era:A Survey of Provincial Evidence from China’s Tax Sharing Reform

有效的税制结构安排是推进新时代下财税体制改革的重要抓手。基于此,本文选择中国省级面板数据和动态效应模型探讨税制结构安排对我国经济高质量发展的影响。研究发现,总体分析上,直接税和间接税都对经济高质量发展产生积极的影响。时序分析上,1995~2003年和2004~2011年两个区间段,间接税对经济高质量发展的作用都超过了直接税;2012~2019年区间段,直接税对经济高质量发展的作用超过间接税。地区异质分析上,东部地区与总体结果基本保持一致;中部地区表现为直接税的正向促进和间接税的反向抑制;而西部地区则恰好与之相反。故此,应进一步增加直接税比重,优化间接税内部税种结构,以发挥税制结构调整对经济高质量发展的促进作用。

Effective tax structure arrangement is an important starting point to promote the reform of financial and tax system in the new era.Based on this,this article makes use of China’s provincial panel data and dynamic effect model to explore the impact of tax structure arrangements on China’s high-quality economic development.And the conclusion is that:On the whole,both direct and indirect taxes have a positive impact on high-quality economic development.In terms of time series analysis,in the two intervals between 1995~2003 and 2004~2011,the effect of indirect tax on the high quality development exceeds that of direct tax;in the interval of 2012-2019,the effect of direct tax on the high quality development exceeds that of indirect tax.In the regional heterogeneity analysis,the eastern region is basically consistent with the overall results;the direct tax in the central region shows a positive promotion while the indirect tax shows a reverse inhibition,which is just the opposite in the western region.Therefore,it is necessary to further increase the proportion of direct tax and optimize the internal tax structure of indirect tax,so as to give play to the role of tax structure adjustment in promoting high quality economic development.