中国城市固定资本存量估算与生产率收敛分析:1988—2015

Estimation of China's Urban Fixed Capital Stock and Productivity Convergence Analysis:1988-2015

固定资本存量是经济分析的基础变量,对于宏观经济分析有着重要意义.不同于以往文献,本文的创新在于从固定资本投资序列、基期固定资本存量、固定资产价格指数和折旧率4个参数的处理进行了创新.采用永续盘存法估算了1988—2015年中国263个地级及以上城市全市和市辖区层面两套固定资本存量序列,并运用随机前沿分析方法对城市全要素生产率进行测算和收敛性分析.研究结果为后续城市空间尺度的经济研究奠定了数据基础,为下一步提高中国城市经济发展的效率提供了政策参考.

The fixed capital stock is the basic variable of economic analysis,and it is of great significance for macroeconomic analysis.Different from the previous literature,this paper is to innovate from the treatment of fixed capital investment sequence,base period fixed capital stock,fixed asset price index and depreciation rate.On this basis,the perpetual inventory method is used to estimate the two sets of fixed capital stocks in 263 prefecture-level and above urban areas(including municipal-administered counties)and urban areas(excluding municipal-administered counties)from 1988 to 2015.Moreover,we uses the SFA method to measure the urban total factor productivity and analysis the convergence.This paper lays a data foundation for the subsequent economic research on urban spatial scale,and provides policy reference for improving the efficiency of China's urban economic development in the next step.