我国"一带一路"投资合作的风险缓释机理研究

Study on Risk Mitigation Mechanism of One Belt And One Road Investment Cooperation in China

提出基于"双边关系—商业模式—经贸结构"视角的分析框架,探讨"一带一路"风险动态演进与缓释机理.良好的双边关系为合作奠定了相对确定性环境和规则、制度,对部分东道国政治、制度风险等具有一定替代作用,企业则审慎采取了适宜的商业及运作模式,最终政企紧密合作形成了贸易、工程、投资的非均衡发力和风险可控格局.简单风险回避是一种消极风险处理办法,关键是要加强多主体合作,均衡好"风险—收益",构建预防性、分散性和补救性的风险缓释策略,进而动态、循环地降低风险发生概率或损失.当前,应密切关注国际形势和不确定性风险冲击,持续加强双边关系,优化经贸布局,提高企业运作能力,注重合作关联性、整体性和协同性,更好地让国际循环和国内循环相互促进、联动发展.

This paper puts forward an analytical framework based on the perspective of "bilateral relationship-business model-economic and trade structure",and discusses the dynamic evolution and mitigation mechanism of risks.Good bilateral relations lay a relatively deterministic environment and institutional arrangements for cooperation,and which has a certain substitution relationship for political and institutional risks of host countries.The enterprises prudently adopt appropriate business and operation mode,and finally the close cooperation between government and enterprise forms a pattern of unbalanced development and controllable risk for trade,engineering and investment.Simple risk avoidance is a negative risk treatment method.The key is to strengthen multi-agent cooperation,balance"risk-return",build preventive,decentralized and remedial risk mitigation strategies,and reduce risk occurrence probability or harm.At present,we should pay close attention to the international situation and the impact of uncertainties and risks,strengthen bilateral relations,optimize the distribution of trade and economic cooperation,and improve the operational capacity of enterprises.We should focus on the relevance,integrity and synergy of our cooperation,and make sure that the international cycle and domestic cycle are mutually reinforcing.