气候变化背景下橡胶树白根病在全球的适生区预测

Prediction of global suitable area for white root disease of rubber tree under climate change

为明确橡胶树白根病在全球的适生区潜在分布,探究未来气候变化背景下该病适生区的时空变化趋势。本研究利用基准时段(1970年-2000年)和未来(2041年-2080年)的全球生物气候数据和该病地理分布信息,基于最大熵模型预测未来该病适生区分布。结果表明:模型训练集和测试集受试者工作特征曲线下方面积值分别为96.5%、94.2%,模拟精度较高。贡献率排名前三的主导环境因子是年均气温变化范围、最湿月降水量、昼夜温差月均值。基准时段橡胶树白根病的全球中、高适生区主要集中在亚洲南部、太平洋岛国、非洲中西部、南美洲东北部等地区。从基准时段到未来,亚洲、大洋洲、非洲和南美洲的中、高适生区分别有向西北、东北、中间和东南方向移动的趋势,全球适生区质心位置有向西北方向移动的趋势,中、高适生区面积占比呈现增加趋势。该研究可为全球各地区橡胶树白根病的检疫防治提供一定的参考依据。

In order to determine the potential distribution of suitable area for white root disease of rubber tree in the world and explore the spatiotemporal variation trend of suitable area of the disease under future climate change,distribution of suitable area of this disease was predicted based on the maximum entropy model,the global bioclimatic variables for the baseline(1970-2000)and future(2041-2080)and the geographic distribution information of the disease.The results showed that the average area values under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the model training and test data were 96.5%and 94.2%,respectively,with a higher simulation accuracy.The top three major environmental factors of the contribution percent were temperature annual range,precipitation of wettest month,and monthly mean diurnal range.During the baseline,the middle and high suitable areas of the disease were mainly concentrated in south Asia,Pacific island countries,central and western Africa and northeast South America.From the baseline to the future,the middle and high suitable areas in Asia,Oceania,Africa and South America moved toward the northwest,northeast,middle and southeast.The centroid position of the suitable areas of this disease moved to the northwest in the world,and the area proportion of the middle and high suitable areas of this disease were increasing.These data can provide some references for the quarantine prevention and treatment of this disease in various regions of the world.