近42年万山区农业气候资源变化特征分析

Analysis on the Change Characteristics of Agricultural Climate Resources in Wanshan District in Recent 42 Years

利用万山区国家气象观测站1978—2019年地面气象观测资料,采用滑动平均法、线性倾向估计法、M-K检验法、滑动t检验等方法分析万山区与农业生产密切相关的光、热、水指标的气候资源特征值。结果表明,近42年万山区年平均气温总体呈上升趋势,平均增长率为0.25℃/10 a,2002年为突变时间点,其中春季升温明显;降水量平均增长率为27.5 mm/10 a,变化趋势不明显;日照时数总体呈下降趋势,平均下降率为54.0 h/10 a,2010年为突变时间点,其中秋季下降趋势显著;稳定通过5℃初日每10年推后1 d,稳定通过10℃初日每10年提前4 d,稳定通过15℃初日每10年提前4 d、终日每10年推后3 d。稳定通过5、10、15℃的初日至终日持续天数增长率分别为5、6、6 d/10 a。稳定通过0、5、10、15℃的活动积温变化显著,倾向率分别为110.6、99.8、117.2、131.9(℃·d)/10 a,稳定通过20℃活动积温变化不显著。

Using the surface meteorological observation data of Wanshan national meteorological observation station from 1978 to 2019,the climatic resource characteristic values of light,heat and water indicators closely related to agricultural production in Wanshan District were analyzed by using moving average method,linear tendency estimation method,M-K test method,sliding t test and other methods.The results showed that the annual average temperature in Wanshan District in the past 42 years had shown an overall upward trend,with an average growth rate of 0.25℃/10 a,and the abrupt change time point was 2002,in which the temperature rise in spring was obvious.The average growth rate of precipitation was 27.5 mm/10 a,and the change trend was not obvious.The sunshine hours had an overall downward trend,with an average decline rate of 54.0 h/10 a,and the abrupt change time point was 2010,in which the downward trend was significant in autumn.The first day of stable passing 5℃was postponed 1 d every 10 years,the first day of stable passing 10℃was advanced 4 d every 10 years,the first day of stable passing 15℃was advanced 4 d every 10 years,and the final day was postponed 3 d every 10 years.The growth rate of the duration of the first day and the last day of stable passage through 5,10 and 15℃were 5,6,and 6 d/10 a,respectively.The active accumulated temperature of stable passing 0,5,10,15℃changed significantly,and the tendency rates were 110.6,99.8,117.2,131.9(℃·d)/10 a,respectively,and the active accumulated temperature at 20℃did not change significantly.