山东省碳排放现状及影响因素研究——基于灰色关联分析

Research on Status and Influencing Factors of Carbon Emissions in Shandong Province——Based on Grey Correlation Analysis

山东省是我国经济增长强省和能源消耗大省,能源消费结构以煤炭和石油为主,在地区生产总值逐年增长的同时,碳排放量也逐年上升,2019年达到31506.79×10^(4)t,而且碳排放主要集中在高耗能行业。虽然近年来碳排放强度呈逐年下降趋势,但问题仍不容忽视。采用灰色关联度分析法,选取能源强度、能源结构、城镇化率、产业结构、总人口数和人均GDP共6个指标,对山东省20102019年碳排放量的影响因素进行关联性分析。结果表明,城镇化率与碳排放的关联度最高,其次为总人口数、人均GDP、能源结构、产业结构、能源强度。根据分析结果,建议山东省应合理控制城镇化发展速度,提高城镇化发展质量;控制人口规模,转变消费模式,提倡低碳消费;调整能源消费结构,走能源多元化道路,提高新能源比重;优化升级产业结构,发展低能耗产业;真正发挥市场在资源配置中的决定性作用,加强碳排放配额分配管理,使企业从“要我降碳”转变为“我要降碳”。

Shandong Province is a province with strong economic growth and high energy consumption in China.Its energy consumption structure is dominated by coal and oil.While the regional GDP grows year by year,the carbon emissions rise year by year,reaching 315.0679 million tons in 2019,and the carbon emissions are mainly concentrated in high-energy consuming industries.Although the carbon emission intensity has been decreasing year by year in recent years,this problem should not be ignored.Using the grey correlation analysis method,six indicators including energy intensity,energy structure,urbanization rate,industrial structure,total population and per capita GDP were selected to carry out correlation analysis on the influencing factors of carbon emissions in Shandong Province from 2010 to 2019.The results showed that urbanization rate has the highest correlation with carbon emissions,followed by total population,per capita GDP,energy structure,industrial structure and energy intensity.According to the analysis results,it is suggested that Shandong Province should reasonably control the speed of urbanization development and improve the quality of urbanization development,control the population scale,change the consumption pattern and advocate low carbon consumption,adjust the energy consumption structure,take the path of energy diversification and increase the proportion of new energy,optimize and upgrade the industrial structure and develop low-energy industries,give full play to the decisive role of the market in resource allocation,strengthen the management on carbon emission quota allocation and enable the enterprises to change from compulsory carbon emission reduction to voluntary carbon emission reduction.