新型农村社会养老保险政策的减贫及再分配效应

The Effect of Poverty Reduction and Income Redistribution of China's New Rural Pension Program

本文使用中国健康与养老追踪调查数据,采用双重差分法和双重差分倾向得分匹配法估计新型农村社会养老保险政策的减贫及再分配效应。双重差分法的估计结果显示:参加新农保使参保群体的基尼系数下降3.7个百分点;在浙江省参加新农保的收入再分配效应远大于在甘肃省参保的收入再分配效应;60岁及以上群体参保的收入再分配效应大于60岁以下群体参保的收入再分配效应。双重差分倾向得分匹配法的估计结果显示:60岁及以上群体参加新农保使个人收入显著上升46.2%~53%;60岁以下群体参保使个人收入上升34%~40%,但该效应并不显著。新农保的实施在一定程度上缓解了贫困并改善了收入分配,但发挥的作用有限。由此,本文提出逐步提高农村居民养老保障水平、实现完善农村养老保障与巩固脱贫攻坚成果的有效衔接等建议。

Using data from China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study(CHARLS)and employing difference-in-differences(DID)and propensity score matching DID(DID-PSM),this paper evaluates the effect of poverty reduction and income redistribution of China's New Rural Pension Program.The estimations from DID show that the Gini Coefficient drops 0.037 as joining in China's New Rural Pension Program and the value is bigger in Zhejiang province than that in Gansu province,and compared to people under 60 years old joining in China's New Rural Pension Program,people aged 60 and above joining in the program make Gini coefficient drop more.Furthermore,the results from DID-PSM show that people aged 60 and above joining in the program made their individual income increase 46.2 percent to 53 percent significantly,while people under 60 years old joining in the program just made their individual income increase 34 percent to 40 percent and the result is not significant.So the implementation of China's New Rural Pension Program has alleviated poverty and improved income distribution to some extent,but the effect is limited.Therefore,this paper puts forward suggestions such as gradually improving the rural pension treatment,and realize the effective connection between improving rural pension security and consolidating the achievements of poverty alleviation.