锅炉受热面管半定量风险评估技术研究与应用

Research and application of semi quantitative risk assessment technology for boiler heating surface tubes

锅炉受热面管失效风险因素较多,定性分析仅作为风险的宏观展现,定量分析需要全方位的大量且准确的数据,为快速实时地对锅炉受热面管风险状态进行评估,提出了一种全新的半定量风险评估技术。该技术从受热面管超温风险预测、状态趋势预测和寿命损耗预测3个方面展开研究,对在役锅炉受热面管状态风险进行全面分析,包括进行金属壁温超温分析,依据受热面管壁厚、老化级别趋势分析,以及基于壁厚减薄模型与过热模型的寿命损耗分析。通过实际应用案例,验证了该技术的可行性,为火力发电厂锅炉受热面管状态风险评估提供了一种全新的技术手段,基于机组检修、防磨防爆检查的金属检测数据即可进行安全评估工作,提前排查事故隐患,将电厂的安全风险和经济损失降到最低。

There are many risk factors for the failure of boiler heating surface tubes.Qualitative analysis is only a macro manifestation of the risk.Quantitative analysis requires extensive and accurate data in all directions.In order to evaluate the risk status of boiler heating surface tubes quickly and real timely,a new semi quantitative risk assessment technologyis proposed.This technology is studied from three aspects:the overtemperature risk prediction of the heating surface tube,the state trend prediction and the life loss prediction.It comprehensively analyzes the state risk of heating surface tubes of in-service boiler,including the analysis of metal wall overtemperature.According to the trend analysis of heating surface tubewall thickness and aging level,and the life loss analysis based on the wall thickness thinning model and overheating model.The feasibility of the technology is verified through a practical application case.It provides a new technical means for the state risk assessment of boiler heating surface tubes in thermal power plants.Safety assessment can be carried out based on the metal inspection data of unit maintenance,anti wear and explosion proof inspection.The hidden danger of accidents can be investigated in advance,and the safety risk and economic loss of the power plant can be reduced to a minimum.