基于态势响应的国际冲突量化建模

Modeling International Conflict Based on Situation Response

针对复杂多变的国际冲突,以往的分析多见于定性的研究,而定量的模型研究则非常少见。该文从冲突的滞后响应角度出发,提出一种态势响应量化分析模型,实现对国际冲突态势的推演预测与转折点定位。对于朝核问题的仿真推演证明了该方法的有效性,所建立的态势响应模型为国际冲突推演分析提供了一种新的思路与解决方案。

In view of various complex international conflicts,most previous studies are focused on qualitative analysis,while quantitative research is extremely lacking.In this paper,we propose a quantitative model from the perspective of retarded response of conflict situation,which realizes the predictions of conflict development and turning points.Simulations on the North Korean nuclear problem prove the validity of the method,and the established model provides a new idea and solution to the international conflict analysis.