地铁网络脆弱性风险评价研究

Research on vulnerability risk assessment of subway network

地铁已经成为民众日常出行的主要方式之一.然而地铁一旦发生事故,将花费大量的人力和物力来恢复运营.因此,为了提高地铁运营的安全性,降低紧急事件后果的严重性,对地铁网络脆弱性的风险因素进行分析.从“人、设、环、管”四个要素构建地铁网络脆弱性评价体系,对地铁网络脆弱性进行分析.以福州地铁二号线为例通过DEA模型评价风险因素,确定风险因素的影响权重及有效指标.结果显示一级指标中“设”和二级指标乘客的行为与客流量大等方面对地铁网络脆弱性影响较为显著.根据分析结果对地铁网络提出相应的改进措施,以降低地铁网络的脆弱性,保证地铁的正常运营.

Subway has become one of the main ways of people's daily travel.However,once the subway accident happened,it needed to spend a lot of manpower and material resources to restore operations.Therefore,in order to improve the safety of subway operation and reduce the severity of the consequences of emergencies,the risk factors of subway network vulnerability were analyzed.In this paper,the vulnerability evaluation system of subway network was constructed from the four elements of“people,equipment,environment and management”to analyze the vulnerability of subway network.Taking Fuzhou Metro Line 2 as an example,the DEA model was used to evaluate risk factors and determined the influence weight and effective index of risk factors.Results showed that the primary index of“equipment”and secondary indicators and passenger behavior such as large traffic had more significant effect on the subway network vulnerability.According to the analysis results,corresponding improvement measures were proposed to reduce the vulnerability of subway network and ensure the normal operation of subway.