基于负载指数的中蒙俄经济走廊水资源开发潜力评价

Evaluation of water resource exploration potential of the China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor based on carrying capacity

利用“中蒙俄经济走廊”43个省级行政单元2016年的地表水资源量、降水量以及人口、GDP等数据,采用水资源负载指数计算方法,系统分析了该地区水资源分布特征及开发潜力。结果表明:“中蒙俄经济走廊”地表水资源呈“东多西少、北多南少、中减最少”空间格局,其中俄罗斯地表水资源丰富,约占经济走廊地表总水资源量的95%,除人口少、水资源需求相对较小,还具有水资源利用程度低、开发潜力大的特点;蒙古国北部地表水资源较为丰富,其中5个行政区水资源负载指数小于1,具有一定的开发潜力,但南部地表水资源严重短缺;中国东北三省及内蒙古自治区由于人口密度相对较大,水资源需求量大,水资源负载指数均大于2,开发潜力低。从区域水资源优化配置角度来看,蒙古国南部和中国四省(自治区)是需要水资源优化配置的重点地区,而俄罗斯则具有缓解“中蒙俄经济走廊”缺少地区水资源问题的条件。但由于水资源的开发利用与社会经济发展紧密关联,“中蒙俄经济走廊”内的水资源合作路径仍有待于深入研究。

In this study,the data of surface water resources,precipitation,population,and gross domestic product for 43 provincial administrative units in the China-Mongolia-Russia economic corridor in 2016 were used to systematically analyze the distribution characteristics and development potential of water resources in these regions by calculating the carrying capacity of water resources.We found that there were more surface water resources in the north and east of the China-Mongolia-Russia economic corridor and less in the west and south,with the middle of the area having the least water resources.Provincial administrative units in Russia were rich in surface water resources,accounting for about 95%of the total surface water resources of the economic corridor.These administrative units in Russia were characterized by having a low population,low demand for water resources,low exploitation and utilization,and high potential for water resources development.Regions in Mongolia were relatively rich in surface water resources in the north,with five administrative regions having a water resources carrying capacity of less than one,which indicates potential for development.However,there was a severe shortage of surface water resources found for the southern part of the Mongolia are in the economic corridor.For three northeastern provinces and the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region of China,the development potential of water resources is low,as their water resources carrying capacities are more than two due to relatively high population densities and the high demand for water resources.The water resources carrying capacity in these regions was higher than two and had low development potential.From the perspective of optimal regional water allocation,the southern part of Mongolia and the four provinces(autonomous regions)of China are the key areas that require the optimal allocation of water resources.There are opportunities in Russia to solve water shortage problems in other regions of the China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor.However,as the exploitation of water resources is closely linked to socio-economic development of each area,cooperation over water resources within the China-Mongolia-Russia economic corridor requires further study.