新疆春季融雪洪水危险性动态评价研究

Dynamic evaluation of the risk of the spring snowmelt flood in Xinjiang

从新疆春季融雪洪水发生的机理出发,选取雪深、高程、水系距离3个评价因子,结合历史灾情数据,利用客观性较高的信息量模型以及GIS技术对新疆春季融雪洪水灾害的危险性开展了定量评价,获取了新疆春季融雪洪水危险性区划图。利用动态致灾因子日正积温和日降水量,驱动静态新疆春季融雪洪水危险性区划,建立了春季融雪洪水危险性动态评价体系,在日尺度上对全疆春季融雪洪水的发生进行了动态评价。结果表明:(1)新疆春季融雪洪水的高危险区主要分布在北疆的伊犁河谷、博州、中天山北坡、塔城北部和阿勒泰地区。(2)对新疆伊犁地区2005年3月中上旬的融雪洪水灾害进行动态评价检验发现,融雪洪水危险性动态评价结果精度较高,可应用到全疆的融雪洪水动态评价中。本研究可为新疆春季融雪洪水的防治和水资源管理提供支撑。

Xinjiang is an area with abundant snow and frequent snowmelt floods.In the context of global climate change,the frequency of flood disasters in Xinjiang,especially snowmelt floods,has increased,and flood losses have increased.Based on the mechanism of the spring snowmelt flood in Xinjiang,this study investigates snow depth,elevation,and water system distance,combined with historical disaster data,and uses an objective information model and geographical information system technology on the risk of Xinjiang spring snowmelt flood disasters.A quantitative evaluation was conducted,and a zoning map of the risk of snowmelt flood in Xinjiang in spring was obtained.Furthermore,the dynamic hazard factors of daily positive accumulated temperature and daily precipitation were used to determine static Xinjiang spring snowmelt flood risk zoning,and a dynamic evaluation system of spring snowmelt flood risk was established,which dynamically analyzes the daily occurrence of spring snowmelt floods in Xinjiang.We found that the high-risk areas of spring snowmelt floods in Xinjiang are primarily distributed in the Ili River Valley,Bozhou,the northern slope of the middle Tianshan Mountain,the northern part of Tacheng,and the Altay region in northern Xinjiang.Additionally,the dynamic evaluation test of the snowmelt flood disaster in the Ili area of Xinjiang in mid-to-early March 2005 found that the accuracy of the dynamic evaluation result of the snowmelt flood risk was high,and it can be applied to the dynamic evaluation of snowmelt floods in Xinjiang.This study provides support for the prevention and control of spring snowmelt floods and water resource management in Xinjiang.