货币政策拉动就业增长的有效性研究——基于系统GMM估计与面板门槛模型的实证分析

Research on the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in Promoting Employment Growth--Empirical analysis Based on System GMM Estimation and Panel Threshold Model

本文基于31个省(市、自治区)2010—2019年的面板数据,对数量型货币政策和价格型货币政策的就业拉动效果进行了实证检验,在检验中运用系统GMM模型剔除内生性,运用面板门槛模型验证阶段性。实证分析发现,总体而言,提高实体经济融资总量和降低利率的货币政策均可以拉动总体就业规模的增长,以社会融资规模衡量的数量型货币政策工具对就业的拉动作用存在门槛特征,拉动效应随货币政策规模的扩张而下降,LPR下降对私营主体就业的拉动作用不显著。据此,建议引导社会融资规模合理增加,加快LPR改革进程,制定差异化的货币信贷政策工具。

This paper empirically tests the employment-pulling effects of quantitative monetary policy and price based monetary policy based on panel data for 31 provinces(cities and autonomous regions)from 2010-2019,using a system GMM model to exclude endogeneity and a panel threshold model to verify stage-specificity in the test.The em-pirical analysis finds that,in general,monetary policy that raises total real economy financing and lowers interest rates can both pull up the overall employment size,the pulling effect of quantitative monetary policy instruments mea-sured by social financing size on employment has a threshold feature,the pull effect decreases with the expansion of monetary policy size,and the pulling effect of LPR decline on employment of private agents is not significant.Accord-ingly,it is recommended to guide a reasonable increase in the scale of social financing,accelerate the process of LPR reform,and develop differentiated monetary and credit policy tools.