代价论视角下第32届夏季奥运会延期决策的冲突困境、博弈考量与权衡思路

Conflict Dilemma,Game Consideration and Trade-off of the 32^(th) Summer Olympic Games Postponement Decision From the Perspective of Cost Theory

以代价论为研究视角,结合新冠疫情对第32届夏季奥运会(以下简称"东京奥运会")延期的实际影响及国际奥委会的执行方案进行评析。研究认为:东京奥运会的延期决策是伦理、法理、政治、经济、竞技等多方博弈的必然结果,面临着法理和伦理的正当性冲突,多元治理主体和多重利益集团的权益冲突。新冠疫情给奥运会所带来的冲突困境恰恰放大和映射出奥林匹克运动的治理体系改革长期囿于各方权益的博弈考量,有形代价和无形代价与奥运会的治理轨迹变革相伴而生,也正是由于决策代价产生后的博弈考量推动着奥林匹克运动治理体系的革新。东京奥运会延期决策的价值考量应兼顾正义与公平,对东京奥运会延期后决策执行过程中可能产生的3类代价,通过设立风险防控和代价补偿作为权衡思路。至此,提出我国要综合评估延期影响,构建多主体参与的应急治理体系;建立代价补偿机制,强化赛事治理主体的"风险抵抗力";积极革新赛事治理理念,推进我国奥运战略的可持续发展。

From the perspective of cost theory,this study combined with the actual impact of the epidemic on the delay of the the 32 thSummer Olympic Games(Tokyo Olympic Games)and the implementation plan of the International Olympic Committee.The research shows that:at present,the decision of postponement of the Tokyo Olympic Games is the inevitable result of the game of ethics,jurisprudence,politics,economy and competition.It is faced with the legitimate conflict between legal theory and ethics,and the rights and interests conflict of multiple governance subjects and multiple interest groups.The conflict dilemma brought by the epidemic to the Olympic Games just magnifies and reflects that the reform of the governance system of the Olympic movement which has been limited by the game consideration of the rights and interests of all parties for a long time.The tangible cost and intangible cost are accompanied by the reform of the governance track of the Olympic games.It is precisely because of the game consideration after the decision-making cost that promotes the reform of the governance system of the Olympic movement.The value consideration of decision-making on the postponement of the Tokyo Olympic Games should take into account justice and fairness.For the three kinds of costs that may be generated in the process of decision-making implementation after the postponement of the Tokyo Olympic Games,risk prevention and control and cost compensation should be set up as trade-off ideas.At this point,It is proposed that China should comprehensively evaluate the impact of delay and build an emergency management system with multiagent participation;establish a cost compensation mechanism to strengthen the"risk resistance"of the main body of event governance;actively innovate the concept of event governance,and promote the sustainable development of China’s Olympic strategy.