新线接入条件下的城市轨道交通网络起讫点客流量预测模型

Urban Rail Transit Network Passenger OD Flow Prediction Model with New Line Access

新线接入将导致城市轨道交通网络连通性等特征发生一定的变化,影响相关线路的客流分布,进而需要对客运组织和行车组织做出调整。分析不同类型新线接入的影响,采用站点进出站客流量数据来表征土地利用变化,通过站点分类与匹配,构建站点进出站客流量预测模型;在此基础上,对网络起讫点矩阵进行区域划分,结合每个区域客流的特点,分别构建相应的客流起讫点预测模型,并以深圳地铁11号线接入作为实际案例,来验证模型和方法的有效性和适用性。验证结果表明,新线接入后的客流分布预测以及客流影响评估,有助于运营管理部门分析掌握新线接入后的实际客流变化情况,以制定与优化相关线路的运输组织方案。

New line access will change the features of rail transit network such as connectivity,impacting passenger flow distribution of associated lines,which calls for adjustment in metro organization and management.The impact of different types of new line accessing is analyzed,and the inbound and outbound passenger flow is drawn on to represent land use change.Prediction model of inbound and outbound passenger flow is constructed through station classification and matching.On this basis,the network OD matrix is divided into regions according to the characteristics of passenger flow in each region.The corresponding passenger OD flow prediction model is constructed respectively.The access of Shenzhen Metro Line 11 is taken as practical case to show the efficacy and applicability of the model and method.Result shows that the passenger flow distribution prediction and passenger flow impact assessment after new line is accessed can help operation and management department to analyze and grasp the actual passenger flow changing situation after new line access,so that metro transportation organization scheme can be devised and optimized.