资源型经济转型试验区政策对碳排放的影响评估——以山西省为例

Impact of the “National Comprehensive Reform Zone for Resource——Based Economy” policy on carbon emissions:A case study of Shanxi Province

低碳发展已成为新时期经济社会发展的主要导向,在山西省资源型经济转型的探索道路中,降低碳排放,不断提高可持续发展能力,是其实现转型和高质量发展的基础。本文基于2004—2017年山西省面板数据,运用合成控制法并建立中介效应模型,研究资源型经济转型综合配套改革试验区政策对碳排放的政策效果及作用机理。研究发现:①资源型经济转型能够有效地抑制山西省碳排放量的增加。在研究时段内,受到政策冲击后山西省的碳排放仅增长89.6%,与合成控制法模拟的山西省135.5%的碳排放增长相比,共减少碳排放78944.68万t。②在政策实施后的短期内,环境规制、产业结构升级均在5%的显著水平上有效抑制了碳排放,其中环境规制发挥中介效应,产业结构升级的作用表现为直接效应。③在短期内,金融发展、技术创新分别在10%和5%的水平上促进了碳排放,从中均发挥“遮掩效应”。由此说明,资源型经济转型综合配套改革试验区政策通过加强管制、产业转型等手段为山西省低碳发展作出了贡献,但是还需要进一步反思并完善有关金融发展、科技创新的制度体系。本文结果有助于为山西省及更多的资源型地区经济低碳高质量转型提供借鉴。

Low-carbon development has become the main theme of economic and social development in China in the new era. In the process of economic transformation of resource-based economy of Shanxi Province, reducing carbon emissions and enhancing sustainability are the foundation for the transition to high-quality development. Based on the panel data of Shanxi Province from 2004 to 2017, this study employed the synthetic control method to study the effect of the"Comprehensive Reform Zone"policy on carbon emissions. A mediating effect model was also established to investigate the key influencing factors and mechanism of influence. The results show that:(1) The reform policy of resource-based economy can effectively restrain the increase of carbon emissions in Shanxi Province. During the study period, compared with the carbon emission increase of 135.5% in the synthetically modeled result of Shanxi Province, affected by the policy,the actual carbon emissions in the province only increased by 89.6%, reducing carbon emissions by 6.55 × 107 tons in total.(2) In the short term after the policy is implemented, environmental regulation and industrial structure upgrading both have effectively reduced carbon emissions at the 5% significance level. Environmental regulation played a mediating role while industrial structure upgrading functioned as a direct driving factor.(3) In the short term, financial development and technological innovation have increased the carbon emissions at the significance level of 10% and 5%, respectively. The results show that the policy of comprehensive reform zone has contributed to the low-carbon development of Shanxi Province by strengthening regulation and industrial transformation. However, it is still necessary to further consider the implications of financial development and scientific and technological innovations.