排水模型和GIS模糊综合评价在内涝风险评估中的应用

Application of Drainage Model and GIS Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation in Waterlogging Risk Assessment

考虑危险性、敏感性、脆弱性三大风险因素,选取8个代表性指标构建内涝风险模糊综合评估模型。以江西省宜丰县为例,通过DigitalWater Simulation排水模型设计10、20、50、100年一遇降雨边界条件,模拟城区的内涝情景。将DigitalWater Simulation模型输出的淹没数据与其他指标数据在GIS中完成数据处理与模糊综合评价过程,最终作出内涝风险分布图。研究结果表明,排水模型在内涝情景模拟方面具备一定的精度,研究区在超过50年一遇降雨时,积水范围基本不再扩大。在50年一遇降雨条件下,相对于单纯的危险性评估结果,经过模糊综合评价后,高风险等级面积占比下调了32.44%,表明内涝风险是多指标共同作用的结果。

Considering three risk factors of hazard,sensitivity and vulnerability,a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of waterlogging risk was constructed by selecting eight representative indicators.Taking Yifeng County in Jiangxi Province as an example,the rainfall boundary conditions of 10-year,20-year,50-year and 100-year return periods were designed by the DigitalWater Simulation drainage model to simulate the waterlogging scenario.The data outputted from the DigitalWater Simulation model and other indicator data were inputted in GIS to complete the data processing and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation,and the waterlogging risk distribution map was eventually made.The results showed that the drainage model had certain precision in the simulation of waterlogging scenario.Under the condition of design rainfall with return period of more than 50 years in the study area,the waterlogging area was almost no longer expanded.Compared with the simple risk assessment results,the proportion of high-risk area was reduced by 32.44%after fuzzy comprehensive evaluation,indicating that the waterlogging risk was affected by many indicators.