长江经济带消费潜力时空分异及类型划分

Temporal and Spatial Differentiation and Classification of Consumption Potential in Yangtze River Economic Belt

目前中国正处于经济转型的重要时刻,扩大国内需求,释放消费潜力成为保证经济平稳发展的关键变量。本文利用城镇收入-消费差作为测度指标表示消费潜力,采用变差系数、空间自相关等空间数据研究方法,分析2000—2018年以来长江经济带消费潜力的时空演化格局以及地域类型划分来反映未来消费的热点地区。结果显示:(1)2000—2008年期间长江经济带消费潜力差异是处于波动的状态,到2008年之后各城市之间的消费潜力差异逐渐减小。(2)2000—2018年消费潜力冷热点的空间集聚都具有明显的异质性,消费热点区集中在长三角城市群,冷点区集中在长江中游地区并有扩散趋势。(3)消费潜力出现西低东高的空间分布状态,其总体范围逐渐扩大。由于较高潜力地区的城市数量增加,较低潜力地区与低潜力地区由最初的集聚变成“碎片式”城市分布,因此消费内在潜力进一步扩大。(4)通过潜力的地域类型划分发现高速增长区有成都、长沙等城市,这些城市成长速度和经济发展较快,可以更快带动消费的增长;同时中下游的二三线城市大多属于中速增长区。从地理学角度研究经济学消费的时空演化特征和类型划分,了解未来长江经济带消费潜力可以进一步释放城市消费空间,可为后续研究消费影响因素作一定的铺垫。

At present,China is at an important moment of economic transformation.Expanding domestic demand and releasing consumption potential have become key variables to ensure stable economic development.In this paper,the urban income-consumption difference is used as a measure index to express the consumption potential,and the spatial data methods such as coefficient of variation and spatial autocorrelation are used to analyze the temporal and spatial evolution pattern of the consumption potential in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2000 to 2018,as well as the division of regional types to reflect the hot spots of future consumption.The results show that:(1)the difference of consumption potential in the Yangtze River Economic Belt is in a state of fluctuation from 2000 to 2008,and the difference of consumption potential among cities gradually decreases after 2008;(2)From 2000 to 2018,the spatial agglomeration of consumption potential cold spots has obvious heterogeneity.The consumption hot spots are concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration,and the cold spots are concentrated in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and have a tendency to spread;(3)The spatial distribution of consumption potential is low in the west and high in the east,and its overall scope is gradually expanding;Due to the increase in the number of cities in high potential areas,low potential areas and lower potential areas have changed from initial agglomeration to"fragmented"urban distribution,so the internal potential of consumption has further expanded;(4)According to the division of potential geographical types,it is found that the high-speed growth areas generally include Chengdu,Changsha and other cities,which have faster growth rate and economic development,and can drive the growth of consumption faster;At the same time,the second and third tier cities in the middle and lower reaches mostly belong to medium-speed growth areas.From the perspective of geography,this paper studies the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics and classification of economic consumption,and understands the urban consumption space that can be further released by the consumption potential of the Yangtze River Economic Belt in the future,which paves the way for the subsequent study of influencing factors on consumption.