长三角高铁运营与人口流动分布格局演进

The Evolution of the High Speed Rail Operation and the Distribution Pattern of Population Flow in the Yangtze River Delta

本文在异时DID的方法下,运用2003-2018年长三角地级市面板数据,定量分析了高铁对人口流动的影响。研究结果显示,高铁的开通显著提高了高铁途经城市的外来人口流动量,且随着高铁网络的完善,其促进效应愈加明显;高铁正在改变人口流动的分布格局,具体表现为:高铁开通后对中等城市人口虹吸效应增大,而超大城市通过便利的交通条件增强了人口吸附能力,人口集聚效应加剧。长三角制造业和消费性服务业人口流动量最大,这为打造长三角强劲增长极,统筹推动国内国际"双循环"奠定了基础。高铁对人口流动的影响范围在95km内,印证了高铁时代"1小时都市圈"的来临;通过传导机制分析发现,高铁主要通过提高城市的工资水平、教育条件吸引外来人口的流动。高铁对城市间人口流动的影响研究有助于长三角一体化更高质量的发展,为构建"双循环"新发展格局探路。

This paper regards the operation of high-speed rail as a"quasi-experiment",under the Time-varying DID method,to investigate the impact of high-speed rail on population mobility by using the panel data of prefecture-level cities in the Yangtze River Delta from 2003 to 2018.The results show that the opening of high-speed rail has significantly increased the flow of migrants in cities,and with the improvement of the high-speed rail network,its promotion effect has become more obviously.The high-speed rail is changing the distribution pattern of population mobility.The specific manifestations are as follows.After the opening of the high-speed rail,the siphon effect on the population of medium-sized cities is greater,while the super-large cities have enhanced its capacity of population absorption through convenient traffic conditions,and the population agglomeration effect has intensified.The Yangtze River Delta has the largest population flow in the manufacturing and consumer service industries.This has laid the foundation for creating a strong growth pole in the Yangtze River Delta and promoting the domestic and international"dual cycle"overally.The impact of high-speed rail on population mobility is within 95 km,which confirms the coming of the"one-hour metropolitan area"in the era of high-speed rail;Through the analysis of the transmission mechanism,it is found that high-speed rail mainly attracts migrants by increasing urban wages and improving educational conditions.A research of the impact of High-speed rail on population mobility between cities will promote the higher-quality integration of the Yangtze River Delta,and explore new ways for the development of"dual cycles".