2021年5月全球新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情风险评估

Risk assessment of global COVID-19 pandemic in May 2021

目的评估2021年5月新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)疫情全球流行情况及对我国的输入风险。方法根据美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学公开发布的每日COVID-19疫情数据,结合牛津大学发布的政策严格性指数,采用流行病学描述方法,通过总体概述、WHO各区及重点国家疫情趋势综合评估和周边十四国疫情与防控政策综合分析,对全球COVID-19疫情风险进行综合、全面与及时的评估。对于各国评估结果,用“全球重点关注国家”、“各WHO分区一般关注国家”和“周边特别关注国家”予以表示。结果与2021年4月相比,2021年5月全球新增确诊病例降低了14.11%,全球新增死亡病例降低了6.60%。东南亚区的新增确诊和死亡病例呈现持续增长,应重点关注。全球每新增1 000万确诊病例用时整体呈现增加趋势,每新增50万死亡病例用时减少。有多个国家5月新增确诊增长率超过了100%。阿富汗和吉尔吉斯斯坦是我国陆地接壤十四国中特别关注国家。结论进入5月后,全球COVID-19疫情略有好转,除东南亚区和西太平洋区新增确诊和死亡病例增长率较高,美洲区(南)新增确诊病例略升高外,其他各分区新增病例确诊率和死亡率均呈现下降趋势。尽管全球新增确诊病例增长率呈现整体下降趋势,但对于印度、阿根廷、哥伦比亚和尼泊尔等全球重点关注国家仍要进行持续监测,关注周边国家疫情形势和防控策略变化,完善防疫主体之间的沟通交流机制,对疫情采取及时有效的防控措施。

Objective To assess the global epidemic of Coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19) in May 2021 and the risk of importation. Methods According to the daily COVID-19 data publicly released by Johns Hopkins University, combined with the policy stringency index published by the University of Oxford, an epidemiological description method was used to provide a comprehensive and timely assessment of the global epidemic risk through a general overview, a comprehensive assessment of the epidemic trends in WHO regions and key countries, as well as a comprehensive analysis of the epidemic and prevention and control policies in 14 neighbouring countries. The assessment results for each country are expressed as "countries of global concern", "countries of the general concern in each WHO sub-region" and "neighbouring countries of special concern".Results Compared with April 2021, the number of confirmed cases decreased by 14.11% and deaths decreased by 6.60%globally in May 2021. The growth rates of newly confirmed and death cases in Southeast Asia increased continuously, thus the region needs critical concern. The time taken for every 10 million new confirmed cases globally showed overall increasing trend, and the time taken for every 500 000 new deaths decreased. In many countries, the growth rate of newly confirmed cases exceeded 100% in May 2021. Afghanistan and Kyrgyzstan are countries of special concern among the 14 land-bordering countries. Conclusion Since May, the infections eased slightly. The number of new confirmed cases and deaths has decreased except in Southeast Asia and Western Pacific. Although the global growth rate of confirmed cases and deaths are showing downward trend, it is necessary to continuously monitor the countries with global concern like India,Argentina,Columbia and Nepal, paying attention to the changes of its epidemic situation and prevention and control policies, and establish a communication mechanism with relevant agencies and provide timely warnings.