采用德尔菲法构建东盟国家登革热输入我国和引发本地传播风险评估指标体系研究

Research on establishing the risk assessment index system of imported and local transmission of dengue fever into China from Association of Southeast Asian Nations countries,based on the Delphi method

目的构建东盟国家登革热输入我国风险和引发本地传播风险评估指标体系,促进暴发预警和迅速应对。方法通过文献查阅和专家讨论,初步构建登革热输入风险和引发本地传播风险评价指标池,以此为基础制定咨询问卷。采用德尔菲法,邀请31名专家进行咨询,通过邮件发放咨询问卷。根据专家对各指标的重要性评分、判断依据和对指标内容的熟悉程度,计算专家积极系数、权威系数、专家意见的集中程度和协调程度,最终确定入选指标和权重。结果最终确定的登革热输入我国风险及引发本地传播风险指标体系由4项一级指标、11项二级指标和36项三级指标组成。两轮专家咨询,专家积极系数分别为100.00%和93.55%,各项指标的专家权威系数为0.76~0.86(满分为1)。4项一级指标的重要性评分的算术平均数为6.21~9.59(满分为10),变异系数为0.08~0.26;11项二级指标的重要性评分的算术平均数为6.55~9.00,变异系数为0.11~0.28;36项三级指标的重要性评分算术平均数为6.41~9.66,变异系数为0.09~0.40。专家对总体指标、一级指标、二级指标、三级指标的协调系数分别为0.381(P<0.01)、0.665(P<0.01)、0.438(P<0.01)、0.351(P<0.01)。结论初步建立登革热输入我国和引发本地传播风险的指标评估体系,结果可靠,为下一步构建登革热暴发风险评估工具提供了重要基础。

Objective To establish an index system for the risk assessment of imported dengue fever from Association of Southeast Asian Nations countries and its secondary transmission in China and facilitate the early warning and rapid response of imported dengue fever.Methods By literature review and expert consultation,the risk assessment index pool of imported dengue fever and its secondary transmission in China was established,and based on which,a questionnaire was developed.Delphi method was used to invite 31 experts for consultation through email.The experts complete the questionnaire.According to the experts’importance score,judge basis and familiarity to candidate index,the positive coefficient,authority coefficient and the coordination coefficient were calculated,the selected indexes and their weight were determined.Results The risk assessment index system of imported dengue fever and its secondary transmission in China consisted of 4 first-level indexes,11 second-level indexes and 36 third-level indexes.In the two rounds of expert consultation,the positive coefficient of experts was 100%and 93.55%respectively.The expert authority coefficient of each index was between 0.76 and 0.86(full score:1).The arithmetic mean of the importance score(AMIS)of the first-level indexes had a range of 6.21-9.59(full score:10),and the range of coefficient of variation(CV)was 0.08-0.26.The AMIS of the second-level indexes had a range of 6.55-9.00 with CV range of 0.11-0.28.The AMIS of the three-level indexes ranged from 6.41 to 9.66 with CV ranged from 0.09 to 0.40.The coordination coefficient was 0.381(P<0.01)for the overall index,0.665(P<0.01)for the first-level indexes,0.438(P<0.01)for the second-level indexes,and 0.351(P<0.01)for the third-level indexes respectively.Conclusion A risk assessment index system of imported dengue fever and its secondary transmission in China has been established,and the result of the system is reliable,which can provide important basis to develop a tool to evaluate the risk of dengue fever outbreak.