基于修正Benford律的财务危机预警Logistic模型及其应用

Financial Early Warning Logistic Model Based on Corrected Benford’s Law and Its Application

财务信息失真降低了财务危机预警模型的预测正确率。针对财务指标数据为有界子集的情形,本文引入基于修正Benford因子的财务危机预警Logistic模型,包含代表财务数据质量的修正Benford因子,改善财务危机预警Logistic模型的预测效果。关于中国上市公司的数据分析发现,修正Benford因子可以提高财务危机预警Logistic模型的预测正确率,降低第一类误判率和第二类误判率。

Financial information distortion reduces the predictive accuracy of the financial early warning model.When financial indicator data is a bounded subset,this article introduces financial early warning Logistic model based on corrected Benford’s law which contains the corrected Benford’s factors to represent the quality of financial data.Based on the Chinese listed companies used as samples,the obtained results show that Benford’s factors improve the predictive accuracy of financial early warning model and reduce type-I error and type-II error.