政府培训对农民工就业质量的影响研究

The Effect of Training Provided by the Government on Job Quality of Rural Migrants

依据国家卫生健康委2013年流动人口动态监测社会融合部分的调查数据,采用内生转换模型分析政府培训对农民工就业质量的影响。研究发现,忽略政府培训参与不可观测影响因素和就业质量不可观测影响因素的相关性,会明显低估政府培训在改善农民工就业质量上所发挥的作用效果;反事实的处理效应估计结果显示,参加政府培训的农民工与其未参加政府培训时相比,月收入增长8.05%-10.61%,周工作时间减少14.95%-17.31%,获得稳定就业的可能性增加约52.07个百分点,参加城镇职工养老保险的可能性增加约42.15个百分点,就业质量指数提升0.47-0.88倍;政府培训对收入的促进作用主要体现在新生代农民工中,对老一代农民工过度劳动的缓解作用要强于新生代农民工。研究结果明确了政府培训在改善农民工就业质量。上所发挥的作用,即政府培训能够增加农民工的收入、缓解农民工的过度劳动状况、增强农民工的就业稳定性和保证农民工就业福利的获得。

We analyze the effect of training provided by the government on job quality of rural migrants based the data of the special survey on social integration of Migrants Population Dynamic Monitoring Survey in 2013 using the endogenous-switching model.We find that it will obviously underestimate the effect of training provided by the government on improving job quality of rural migrants when neglecting correlation between unobservable factors affecting government training participation and unobservable factors affecting job quality;The counterfactual analysis shows that training provided by government makes rural migrants monthly income increasing by 8.05%to 10.61%,weekly work hours decreasing by 14.95%-17.31%,the possibility of obtaining stable job increasing by about 52.07 percentage point,the possibility of participating in urban endowment insurance increasing by about 42.15 percentage point,the job quality index increasing by 0.47-0.88 times.The promoting effect of training provided by government on monthly income was mainly reflected in the new generation rural migrants,and the mitigating effect of overwork in the old generation was stronger than that in the new generation.