农业面源污染的影响因素研究——基于2009-2018年安徽省数据的实证分析

Study on the Influencing Factors of Agricultural Non-point Source Pollution:Empirical Analysis Based on the Data from 2009 to 2018 in Anhui Province

选取安徽省16个地级市为研究对象,运用清单分析法测算出2009-2018年各地区农业面源污染的排放量,并进行分布特征分析;建立了空间杜宾模型对影响安徽省各地农业面源污染的因素进行了实证分析,结果表明农业经济规模、城镇化率、农业投资和农业现代化等因素对安徽省农业面源污染的排放存在显著性影响,增加农业投资、提高城镇化率等会减轻农业面源污染的排放。

In this paper,16 prefecture-level cities in Anhui Province were selected as the research objects.The inventory analysis method was used to calculate the emissions of agricultural non-point source pollution in each region from 2009 to 2018,and the distribution characteristics were analyzed.The spatial Dubin model was established to empirically analyze the influencing factors of agricultural non-point source pollution in Anhui Province.The results show that agricultural economic scale,urbanizationrate,agricultural investment and agricultural modernization have significant impact on the emission of agricultural non-point source pollution in Anhui Province.Increasing the agricultural investment and improving the urbanization rate will reduce the emission of the agricultural non-point source pollution.