“一带一路”背景下中国与东盟木质林产品贸易的绿色生产率效应研究

Research on the Green Productivity Effect of China-ASEAN Wood Forest Products Trade under the"the Belt and Road"Initiative

文章分析了中国与东盟各国木质林产品贸易的绿色生产率效应,探讨了中国与东盟各国进行木质林产品贸易对东盟各国绿色经济增长产生的影响。研究结果对中国与东盟各国的木质林产品贸易策略调整,以及消除沿线国家对于绿色经济增长的担忧和质疑有一定的参考价值。为此,文章基于2003-2019年中国与东盟木质林产品贸易数据,采用计量模型,在测度东盟各国绿色经济增长水平基础上,实证检验了双方木质林产品贸易对东盟地区绿色经济增长的影响关系。研究表明:(1)中国与东盟木质林产品贸易显著正向提升了东盟各国绿色生产率,影响系数达到了0.134,各国平均技术进步指数达到了1.369,说明技术进步是推动绿色生产率提升的主要动力;(2)"一带一路"相关贸易政策对东盟各国绿色生产率产生显著促进作用,影响系数为0.143,显示与我国进行木质林产品贸易并未削弱东盟地区发展的绿色红利;(3)木质林产品贸易对技术进步指数产生显著正向影响,影响系数为0.161,表明东盟各国林业企业技术与设备得到有效的进步与升级。但受制于人力资本差异与水平限制,当地的林业企业在管理水平、资源配置与规模生产等方面提升效果不佳。基于此,提出四点政策启示:一是进一步优化现有贸易体制,营造良好贸易环境,加快推进贸易政策自由化与便利化;二是通过税收优惠、财政补贴、出口退税等措施积极引导中国林业企业"走出去";三是加大林业教育投入与支出,不断强化和提高人力资本水平,增加林业行业高端人才储备;四是林业企业应加大科技投入,调整产品结构,提高产品附加值,获得产品差异优势。

This paper analyzed the green productivity effect of China-ASEAN wood forest products trade,exploring whether wood forest products trade between China and ASEAN has a significant impact on the green economic growth of the host country.The study has some reference value for the adjustment of the trade strategy of wood forest products between China and ASEAN,as well as elimination of the worries and doubts of green economic growth of the countries along the route.Based on the trade data of wood forest products between China and ASEAN from 2003 to 2019,by using an econometric model,on the basis of measuring the level of green economy growth in ASEAN countries,this paper empirically tests the impact of wood forest products trade between the two sides to the green economic growth of ASEAN.The research shows that:(1)The trade of wood forest products between China and ASEAN significantly positively improved ASEAN’s green productivity,the impact coefficient reached 0.134,and the average technical progress index of each country reached 1.369,indicating that technological progress was the main driving force for the improvement of green productivity.(2)The related trade policies of"the Belt and Road"have a significant promoting effect on ASEAN’s green productivity,the impact coefficient was 0.134,showing that trade in wood forest products with China has not weakened the green dividend of ASEAN’s regional development.(3)The trade of wood forest products has a significant positive impact on the technical progress,and the impact coefficient was 0.161,indicating that the technology and equipment of forestry enterprises in ASEAN region have been effectively advanced and upgraded.However restricted by the level of human capital,local forestry enterprises have no significant improvement in management level,resource allocation and scale production.Based on this,This paper put forward to the following policy implications:Firstly,further optimize the existing trade system,create a favorable trade environment,and accelerate the liberalization and facilitation of trade policies.Secondly,actively guide China’s forestry enterprises to"go global"through favorable tax policy,financial subsidies,export tax rebates and other measures.Thirdly,increase investment and expenditure on forestry education,continuously strengthen and improve the level of human capital,and increase the reserve of high-end talents in the forestry industry.Finally,forestry enterprises should increase investment in science and technology,upgrade industrial structure,improve the added value of products,and obtain product differentiation advantages.