居民物价感受与CPI的悖离——基于典型价格指数的模拟分析

Contradiction Between Consumer Price Perception and CPI——A Simulation Analysis Based on Typical Price Index

文章以2016年1月至2020年11月国家统计局公布的月度环比CPI和农产品价格指数、国房景气指数以及清华iCPI项目组发布的网络CPI环比数据为样本,模拟分析在农产品金融化背景下,将农产品价格、住房价格以及线上商品价格纳入CPI核算体系对CPI的影响。研究表明,农产品价格变化对CPI的影响最大,是居民体验感与CPI实际变化不一致的主要原因,相对而言,房价变化对CPI的影响较小。采用当前CPI核算体系计算得到的CPI总指数的代表性偏误,会随着网购数量和规模的增加而增大,而不同类型线上商品的数量和规模变化对CPI的影响并不一致。其中,线上衣着类商品规模的增加会减少CPI波动,线上生活用品及服务类商品规模的增加会增加CPI波动。

Taking as samples the month-on-month CPI and agricultural product price index and the Real Estate Climate Index released by the National Bureau of Statistics from January 2016 to November 2020 and the online CPI month-on-month data released by Tsinghua iCPI project team, this paper simulates and analyzes the impact of integrating agricultural product prices,housing prices and online commodity prices into the CPI accounting system on the CPI under the background of financialization of agricultural products. The research shows that the price change of agricultural products has the greatest impact on the CPI, which is the main reason for the inconsistency between residents’ perception and the actual change of CPI;relatively speaking, changes in house prices have a smaller impact on CPI, and that the representative bias of the total CPI index calculated by the current CPI accounting system will increase with the increase of the quantity and scale of online shopping, while the change of the quantity and scale of different types of online goods has different impact on the CPI;among them, the increase in the scale of online clothing goods will reduce the CPI fluctuations, and the increase in the scale of online daily necessities and service goods will increase the CPI fluctuations.