国际舆论对中国引进外资的影响:基于Gdelt新闻大数据的实证研究

The Impact of International Public Opinion on the Introduction of Foreign Direct Investment in China:Empirical Research Based on Gdelt News Big Data

国际舆论反映了国际社会对东道国的综合评价,是东道国"软实力"的重要体现,并通过降低内在不确定性和塑造国际形象等途径影响母国企业对外直接投资决策。文章使用谷歌Gdelt提供的媒体报道数据,分舆论关注度和舆论褒贬度两个边际,实证检验了国际舆论对中国引进外资的影响。研究发现:国际舆论关注度显著促进了中国外资流入,但舆论褒贬度的影响并不显著;通过国家异质性分析发现,国际舆论关注度显著提升了发展中国家、"一带一路"国家和非接壤国家企业对中国直接投资;从国际舆论关注度和舆论褒贬度的交互效应来看,当国外媒体对中国报道较为负面时,舆论关注度对中国引进外资的促进作用将会增强;考虑不同媒体的异质性效应,母国国内主流媒体的舆论关注度有利于中国引进外资,中国媒体对母国的舆论关注度也会促进中国引进外资,但是国际主流媒体的信息溢出效应却并不明显。文章的结论表明,中国应不断对外传达人类命运共同体等"中国理念",提供全球经济治理的"中国方案",特别是要注重与发展中国家及"一带一路"国家的文化交流、经济政治合作等。

The international public opinion reflects the comprehensive evaluation of the host country by the international community,which is an important embodiment of the"soft power"of the host country,and affects OFDI of the home country enterprises by reducing the inherent uncertainty,shaping the international image and other ways.Based on the theoretical analysis of sociology,uncertainty and international investment,this paper uses the media report data provided by Google Gdelt to empirically test the impact of international public opinion on the introduction of foreign direct investment in China.Firstly,it is found that international public opinion attention significantly increased IFDI in China,but the impact of public opinion praise or criticism degree is not significant.Secondly,through the analysis of heterogeneity,it is found that the attention of international public opinion has significantly increased the investment in China by enterprises from developing countries,"One Belt and One Road"countries and non-bordering countries.Thirdly,judging from the interaction effect of the attention of international public opinion and the degree of praise or criticism of international public opinion,when the foreign media report on China is negative,the influence of the attention of international public opinion on the IFDI in China will be enhanced.Lastly,considering the heterogeneous effect of the media,the attention of home country’s mainstream media to China is conducive to Chinese IFDI,and the attention of Chinese media to home country will also affect Chinese IFDI.However,the information spillover effect of international mainstream media is not obvious.The conclusion of this paper indicates that China should constantly convey"China’s idea"to the outside world,provide"China’s plan"for global economic governance,and pay attention to cultural exchanges,economic and political cooperation with developing countries and"One Belt And One Road"countries.