“一带一路”倡议对沿线国家能源投资的促进效应:基于中国企业对外投资数据的三重差分检验

The Promotion Effect of "One Belt One Road" Initiative on Energy Investment of Countries Along the Belt and Road:Triple Difference Test Based on Chinese Enterprises’ Foreign Investment

"一带一路"合作是顺应经济全球化和区域经济一体化的重大倡议,为中国企业对沿线国家能源投资提供了良好契机,近年来,中国对外能源投资呈规模不断扩大、效率逐渐提升和投资地区较为集中的趋势。文章基于美国企业研究所和美国传统基金会公开的2005~2018年"中国全球投资跟踪"数据库,运用三重差分法研究了中国企业对沿线国家能源投资的促进效应。主要结论有:首先,"一带一路"倡议显著促进了中国企业对沿线国家投资规模的增长,其中能源行业促进效应突出,且该实证结果通过了平行趋势检验、安慰剂检验和工具变量检验;其次,通过投资形式比较发现中国企业对外能源投资以跨国并购方式为主且跨国并购投资效应显著高于绿地投资;再次,通过投资区位比较发现海上丝绸之路能源投资的促进效应明显高于陆上丝绸之路,另外"一带一路"沿线主要受益地区为亚洲地区;最后,中国对沿线国家投资能源中以天然气和煤炭为代表的不可再生能源对沿线投资产生的促进效应较为显著。

One belt,one road initiative is a major strategy to conform to the economic globalization and regional economic integration.It provides a good opportunity for Chinese enterprises to invest in energy resources along the route. In recent years,China’s foreign energy investment has been expanding,increasing efficiency and concentrating the investment area. This paper uses the 2005~ 2018 " China global investment tracking" database published by the American Enterprise Research Institute and the American Heritage Foundation,and uses the triple difference method to study the promotion effect of Chinese enterprises on energy investment in countries along the belt and road. China’s one belt,one road initiative has significantly promoted the growth of Chinese enterprises’ investment in the countries along the border. The energy industry has a significant effect of promoting,and the empirical results have been tested by parallel trend,placebo test and instrumental variable test. Secondly,through comparative analysis,it is found that China’s foreign investment forms are mainly transnational mergers and acquisitions,and cross-border mergers and acquisitions investment. One belt,one road,and the other main areas benefiting from the " Silk Road" are the Asian regions. Finally,the spillover effect of the non renewable energy resources represented by energy,natural gas and coal in the countries along the route is relatively more. Obviously,the promotion effect of new energy is not obvious.